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Jake Paul and Mike Tyson will draw most of the crowd to Netflix on Friday night, but true combat sports enthusiasts will be salivating for the rematch between Katie Taylor (23-1) and Amanda Serrano (47-2-1). It is time to continue our betting odds series with another boxing prediction and pick.
In their first fight — one that is considered by some as one of the greatest women's fights of all time — Taylor retained her undisputed titles by split decision. However, the result was semi-controversial, causing all viewers to assume a rematch was soon.
Two years later, Taylor has since gone 2-1, including going 1-1 with Chantelle Cameron in another marquee rivalry, while Serrano has defended her featherweight titles four times and gone 5-0 overall.
Here are the Taylor-Serrano odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Boxing Odds: Katie Taylor-Amanda Serrano Odds
Katie Taylor: +144
Amanda Serrano: -178
Over 8.5 Rounds: -700
Under 8.5 Rounds: +440
How to Watch Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano
Time: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
TV/Stream: Netflix
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)*
Why Katie Taylor Will Win
Taylor has only fought three times since the first meeting as opposed to five for Serrano. However, Taylor's three fights were much tougher than Serrano's five, considering two of them were against Cameron, who is unanimously considered to be a top-five pound-for-pound fighter in the world.
As evidenced in the first fight, Taylor has the speed advantage over Serrano. She just has to maintain distance and movement, as Serrano will not slow down for a second.
Serrano is the one who wants this to turn into a firefight. and while there is a big possibility that happens again, Taylor's counters are the quicker of the two. She just has to match the volume of Serrano to make up for the power difference.
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If she can avoid engaging in the type of fight Serrano wants, Taylor can be difficult to corral at times, which could frustrate Serrano. Whichever approach she takes needs to involve a lot of head and foot movement.
Why Amanda Serrano Will Win
Serrano looked like she had a point to prove in her last fight and easily dispatched Stevie Morgan in just over three minutes. That same version of her needs to show up on Friday night if she wants to become the undisputed light welterweight champion.
There is not a lot that Serrano needs to change in this rematch, particularly considering many thought she won the first fight. Most of the intangibles of the matchup favor her as the younger fighter by two years who appears to be peaking at the right time.
What worked for Serrano in the first fight was her aggression, as she got ahead of Taylor early by overwhelming the champion and forcing her into a brawl. That same level of aggression needs to be present again.
The biggest factor to look for in Serrano will be seeing how much she has improved her distance management and defensive mechanics. She tried to walk down Taylor the last time, and she found success with that approach but also got clipped on nearly every counter.
Serrano will need to walk that fine line of aggression without over-extension, which is much easier said than done. Getting ahead early again would be big for her.
Final Taylor-Serrano Prediction & Pick
With their first fight being as close as any fight can be, the rematch will be all about minor adjustments. Boxing is truly a game of inches, and the smallest improvements will make the biggest impact. Rematches almost never live up to the hype, but the first time these two met, they combined for just three jabs landed out of 320 total punches, per CompuBox.
It is difficult to take away much from Serrano's recent performances, but she has looked like an improved fighter in the last two years. Taylor has as well, but at 38, it is difficult to see her coming out on top of another toe-to-toe war with a physical fighter like Serrano.
With the amount of pressure and eyes on this fight, both women have said they want a repeat of their first fight. Expect that to happen with Serrano's power being the ever-so-slight difference-maker that sets up a lucrative trilogy in 2025.
Final Taylor-Serrano Prediction & Pick: Amanda Serrano (-178)
