The Minnesota Twins look to replicate their success from last season as they head into the 2024 season. We're here to share our MLB series and make a Twins over-under regular-season win total prediction and pick for the 2024 season.
The Twins went 87-75 last season and even advanced to the American League Championship Series. Now, it's time to see what they can do this season while examining last season's highlights.
Royce Lewis finished with a batting average of .309, 15 home runs, 52 RBIs, and 36 runs over 217 at-bats. He also slugged five grand slams. Max Kepler was also solid, finishing with a batting average of .260, 24 home runs, 66 RBIs, and 72 runs, and an on-base percentage of .332 over 432 at-bats. In addition to hitting, the Twins got some pitching from Pablo Lopez, who went 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA over 32 starts. Bailey Ober also had a good season, going 8-6 with a 3.43 ERA over 26 starts.
The Twins did not have many additions in the offseason. However, they lost Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. It will be interesting to see how their rotation reacts to the loss, and how well they can adjust.
Here are the Win Total MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Twins 2024 Win Total Odds
Over 87.5 Wins: -102
Under 87.5 Wins: -120
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Why The Twins Will Win 87.5 Games
There is a lot to like about this team. Firstly, they play in the AL Central. When you play 12 games each against the Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers, and Kansas City Royals, there are so many opportunities for wins. The Twins also will have plenty of chances to take down opponents across the league. Overall, they have a good team, and it starts with a solid lineup.
We have mentioned Lewis and Kepler. The Twins also have Alex Kiriloff. Kiriloff finished with a batting average of .270, 11 home runs, 41 RBIs, and 35 runs over 281 at-bats. Moreover, Kiriloff had an on-base percentage of .348. Going back to Kepler, it's important to remember that he had a 91.9 MPH average exit velocity whenever he swung the bat. Lewis is about to do even more after slugging four postseason home runs. Given his potential, he could easily slug for 30 home runs this season if he can get at least 500 at-bats.
The rotation still has some nice pieces. Lopez and Ober are as good as they come and can both create some noise. When it comes to turning the game over to the bullpen, they have some players ready to shut the door. Jhoan Duran has a dangerous 104.8 MPH fastball and a hybrid pitch called the splinker, which is a combination of the splitter and the sinker. When he throws the splinker, it cuts across the middle and curves downward.
To get the ball to Duran, there is Griffin Jax. Jax went 6-10 with a 3.86 ERA and four saves over 71 appearances. Therefore, look for him to be heavily involved in this gameplan on a nightly basis.
The Twins will win 88 games because they have an explosive, opportunistic lineup. Additionally, they have a strong rotation and a good bullpen waiting in the wings.
Why The Twins Won't Win 87.5 Games
Despite having a relatively good lineup, there are some weaknesses in this lineup that could easily kill the momentum in any given inning. First, there is Carlos Correa. When Correa signed with the Twins, everyone expected amazing numbers. Instead, he finished with a batting average of .230 with 18 home runs, 65 RBIs, and 60 runs over 514 at-bats, along with an on-base percentage of .312. Byron Buxton also struggled and could not stay healthy. Unfortunately, he was bad, with a batting average of .207, 17 home runs, 42 RBIs, and 49 runs.
Joe Ryan should be an elite starter. Instead, he went 11-10 with a 4.51 ERA over 29 starts. He will try a new splitter to see if that might help. Chris Paddack is trying to make it back to the rotation and has to find a way to find his control. Also, he has to limit his mistakes.
The Twins will not win 87 games because there are still a lot of players that will struggle. Unfortunately, they will undergo some lulls, which will hurt them in the end and cause them to miss 87 wins.
Final Twins Over/Under Win Total Prediction
The Twins are the favorites to win the AL Central. Ironically, many people claim this division is up for grabs. The Twins are a well-coached team, and they have plenty of talent that can carry them. Until the rest of the division improves, the Twins are still the team to beat. Expect the Twins to go 89-73 this season. It will not be a major improvement. But they will cover the odds.
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Final Twins Over/Under Win Total Prediction: Over 87.5 Wins: -102
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