The Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the Kentucky Wildcats. Check out our college football odds series for our Mississippi State Kentucky prediction and pick.
The Kentucky Wildcats have a lot of injuries and have been limited at several positions in recent weeks. The most damaging injury was to quarterback Will Levis, who was unable to play against South Carolina last week. Kentucky's offense managed only seven points in the first three quarters and finished with only 14 in a brutal home-field loss to the Gamecocks. Levis is expected to play this week, so that should give the Wildcats a boost. Yet, this season should serve as a lesson for head coach Mark Stoops, who — like a lot of other head coaches across the country — has been caught without a reasonably good backup quarterback. Having a capable backup quarterback when the QB1 goes down is profoundly important in major college football. Kentucky did not have an answer at the backup quarterback position, and it was costly for Big Blue.
Even if Levis does play this week (which is the expectation heading toward kickoff time), Kentucky has had injuries along its offensive line. The Wildcats need to work around those limitations and give Levis a game plan in which he can use his skills and yet not enter situations in which his body is particularly at risk. Maybe some sprint rollouts and short passes can give Levis a rhythm and confidence early in the game, setting up the run later in the game and then leading to play-action shots in which the defense is focused on the run and Levis gets a clean pocket to work from. Something needs to change for UK in this contest.
Mississippi State is forging a story which should be very familiar to people in the state of Mississippi. Last year and this year, Lane Kiffin has made Ole Miss football relevant, but not just with a high-octane offense. Kiffin is associated with a fun and freewheeling style of play, but Kiffin's attention to detail on defense has made Ole Miss a good two-way team. The Rebels can win with defense, not just offense.
The same dynamic seems to be unfolding at Mississippi State.
Mike Leach is known as an offensive guru and a teacher of the Air Raid offense, one of the innovative pass offenses of the past 25 years. Yet, his 2022 Mississippi State team is packing a punch on defense. The Bulldogs have played excellent defensive first halves in recent weeks against Texas A&M and Arkansas. The offense is doing its part, but the defense is setting the tone and giving the offense a considerable margin for error. If the Mississippi State defense continues to play this well, the Bulldogs will have a chance to win 10 games this season, which would rate as a soaring success for Leach in Starkville. This game at Kentucky is essential for MSU if it wants to hit that 10-win target.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Mississippi State-Kentucky College Football odds.
College Football Odds: Mississippi State-Kentucky Odds
Mississippi State Bulldogs: -3.5 (-110)
Kentucky Wildcats: +3.5 (-110)
Over: 50.5 (-110)
Under: 50.5 (-110)
Why Mississippi State Could Cover the Spread
The Bulldogs are getting production from both their defense and their offense. They are playing complementary football and are receiving contributions throughout their roster. Kentucky's injuries have left the Wildcats depleted. MSU's depth and balance should carry the day in this game.
Why Kentucky Could Cover the Spread
Kentucky is a desperate team in dire need of a win. Will Levis is back in the lineup. That should be the shot in the arm the Wildcats need to play a strong game at home and turn their season around.
Final Mississippi State-Kentucky Prediction & Pick
Kentucky is probably going to be better than it was last week, but Levis is not 100-percent healthy. He still faces limitations against a good Mississippi State defense. Meanwhile, Kentucky's defense should be able to contain MSU's offense. The under cashed in Kentucky's game last week versus South Carolina. Go with the under here in Lexington one more time.
Final Mississippi State-Kentucky Prediction & Pick: Under 50.5
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