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The Houston Astros and the Seattle Mariners will clash for the second battle of a three-game set at T-Mobile Park in the Pacific Northwest. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with an Astros-Mariners prediction and pick.
The Astros defeated the Mariners 5-2 on Friday, snapping the Mariners' 14-game winning streak. The Astros struck early when Jose Altuve blasted a solo home run to left-center field in the first inning. It was the 16th in 2022, giving the Astros an early 1-0 lead. Then, Yordan Alvarez clobbered a solo shot to deep left field in the fourth inning. The blast was his 28th of the year, giving the Astros a 2-0 lead. Next, Martin Maldonado slammed a solo blast to left field in the fifth. The homer was his 10th of the season, putting Houston up 3-0.
The Astros added two more runs before allowing Seattle to get two back. Ultimately, the Astros held a three-run lead in the eighth with the bases loaded and one out but wiggled out of the danger. Jose Urquidy tossed an efficient game, going six innings while allowing one earned run on four hits. Meanwhile, Marco Gonzales struggled, going 5 2/3 innings, while giving up five earned runs on nine hits. The Astros are 62-32, and first in the AL West. Conversely, the Mariners are 51-43, good for second place in the AL West and 11 games behind the Astros. Justin Verlander will start for the Houston Astros, while Logan Gilbert will go for the Seattle Mariners.
Here are the Astros-Mariners MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Astros-Mariners Odds
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+125)
Seattle Mariners: +1.5 (-150)
Over: 7 (-105)
Under: 7 (-115)
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Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread
The Astros will put a future hall-of-famer on the mound, as Verlander takes the spot today. Verlander is 12-3 with a 1.89 ERA. Also, he is 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in two July starts. Verlander tossed six scoreless innings in his last game, allowing six hits. Additionally, he is 6-2 with a 1.77 ERA over nine starts on the road. Verlander has faced the Mariners four times this season, compiling a 3-1 record with a 2.93 ERA. Likewise, he is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in two starts at T-Mobile Park.
Verlander has plenty of offensive backup with Altuve, Alvarez, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker powering an explosive Astros lineup. Altuve is batting .538 (7 for 13) with one home run and one RBI in his career against Gilbert. Likewise, Alvarez is hitting .308 (4 for 13) with one home run and five RBIs against Gilbert. Bregman loves facing the Seattle starter, as he is batting .545 (6 for 11) with an RBI against Gilbert. Lastly, Tucker is batting .375 (3 for 8) with one RBI against Gilbert. All four hitters have experienced some success against the current Mariners' ace and look to continue that trend today.
The Astros will cover the spread if Verlander continues his hot July. Moreover, if he takes a stranglehold of the game, it will be difficult for the Mariners to mount anything. Things could turn in Houston's favor if the hitting gets going early, forcing the Mariners on their heels.
Why The Mariners Could Cover The Spread
Gilbert is 10-3 with a 2.76 ERA and looks to keep going. He is 1-0 with a 3.31 ERA over three starts in July. Recently, Gilbert threw five innings, allowing one earned run on four hits in his last start. He is 4-2 with a 3.21 ERA over eight starts at home this season. Additionally, Gilbert has faced the Astros twice this season, going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA. He blanked the Astros over seven innings on May 28, allowing four hits.
Seattle has four hitters that can do real damage. Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, Jesse Winker, and Carlos Santana each bring value to the lineup but must improve against Verlander. Rodriguez is batting .166 (2 for 12) with one home run, two RBIs, and six strikeouts against Verlander. Also, Winker is batting .142 (2 for 14) with one home run and one RBI against the Houston ace. Santana is batting .231 with eight home runs and 14 RBIs in his career against Verlander. Alternatively, France has done okay against the future hall of famer this year, batting .429 (6 for 14) with an RBI.
The Mariners will cover the spread if they get a great outing out of Gilbert. Also, they must get to Verlander early. The Astros have the best bullpen in baseball, and falling behind in the game would be bad for Seattle.
Final Astros-Mariners Prediction & Pick
This is a certified pitcher's duel. Thus, expect both offenses to struggle, which is why the line is low. The Astros and Mariners will compete in a low-scoring game, with not much going on. The under prevails, barely.
Final Mariners-Astros Prediction & Pick: Under: 7 (-115)