The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners will kick off a three-game series on Monday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make an Astros-Mariners prediction and pick.
The Astros head into this series in a dominant position. They have one of the best records in the league and lead their division by 5.5 games. Houston has pretty much locked up a playoff spot already, but the same can't be said for their opponent.
The Mariners are clinging to their postseason hopes by a thread, as they trail the last Wild Card spot by 4.5 games. Every game counts for Seattle as it tries to play its way into the playoffs, but the AL West division rival would love to play spoiler in this one.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Monday's game.
MLB Odds: Astros-Mariners Odds
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Houston Astros ML (-161)
Seattle Mariners ML (+148)
Over 8 1/2 runs (+100)
Under 8 1/2 runs (-120)
Why The Astros Could Win
The Astros are the most well-rounded team in all of baseball. Their offense ranks inside the top three in MLB in batting average, slugging percentage, OBP, and OPs. The Houston pitching rotation is also completely stacked, with quality starters pitching almost every day. That streak continues in this game, as the Astros will entrust the start to pitcher Luis Garcia.
Garcia has been a pleasant surprise for the Astros, earning himself a 3.21 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. Those are elite numbers, and they indicate a level of pitching that is more than capable of handling this Mariners offense that is one of the worst in the league. Seattle's lineup has essentially been the polar opposite of Houston's, ranking in the bottom five in baseball in every major batting category. Garcia should be able to handle this lineup without any trouble.
The Astros will face Mariners pitcher Chris Flexen in this game. Flexen is one of Seattle's best starters, but Houston seems to be comfortable facing him. The last time Flexen played against the Astros, he pitched only four innings while giving up seven runs in that span. It's unreasonable to expect a performance as good as that one, but Houston should be able to put some early runs on the board.
Why The Mariners Could Win
Seattle's offense certainly isn't anything to write home about, but these bats do seem to have Luis Garcia's number. The last time Garcia faced the Mariners, he gave up five runs over four innings, earning himself a loss in the process. Home-field advantage should help the Mariners produce a similar performance, as Garcia has struggled mightily when asked to pitch on the road. His ERA when playing at Minute Maid Park is an elite 1.83, but that skyrockets to 4.97 when he pitches anywhere else. All of Garcia's other stats follow suit and regress heavily. Seattle may not be the most potent offensive squad, but it's certainly possible to surprise Garcia and come out strong.
Chris Flexen may have put together a poor performance the last time he faced the Astros, but there's reason to believe that it won't happen again. The righty is similar to Garcia in that he performs much better when pitching on his home turf. Flexen's opponents own a .303 batting average against him when he plays on the road, but that plummets to .241 at T-Mobile Park. Flexen has proven himself to be one of the better pitchers in MLB, and that should show on Monday.
Final Astros-Mariners Prediction & Pick
This is a great spot to pick an upset. The Mariners have a positive history against Garcia, and they get to face him on their home field. Flexen is a great pitcher who should be good for a quality start, if not more. The odds also make it a great opportunity to pick an upset, as the Astros shouldn't be as heavily favored as they are.
FINAL PICK: Seattle Mariners ML (+148)
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