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MLB odds: Astros vs. Padres prediction, odds, pick, and more – 9/3/2021

Astros Padres prediction, odds, pick, MLB betting

The Houston Astros will travel out west to take on the San Diego Padres in the first game of their three-game series. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make an Astros-Padres prediction and pick.

The Astros have lost their previous two games but remain in first place in the America League West with a 78-55 record. On the other hand, the Padres are in need of a strong run as they try to keep their playoff hopes alive. They are 71-63 on the year, which puts them 14 games out of first place in the National League West, but just 0.5 games out of the final National League wild-card spot.

Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Padres-Angels Odds.

MLB Odds: Astros-Padres Odds

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Houston Astros -1.5 (+120)

San Diego Padres +1.5 (-140)

Over 9 runs (-118)

Under 9 runs (-102)

Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread

The Padres are 63-71 against the run line this season. However, in non-league games, Jayce Tingler’s squad covers 80% of the time (12-3), which is the best in the MLB under such circumstances.

San Diego plans to give Jake Arrieta his 2nd start as Padres pitcher since being cut by the Chicago Cubs in August. The right-hander is 5-12 on the season and has an ERA of 7.13. In his last time out, Arrieta allowed five earned runs and gave up seven hits in just three innings pitched, giving him his eighth straight loss.

However, if there is any reason to feel confident about the 35-year-old veteran for tonight’s opener, he is 1-0 in his only career start against the Astros.

The Padres offense has really struggled as of late. They have just nine home runs in the last two weeks, which is second-worst in the MLB over that span. And despite San Diego having the third-best walk rate in MLB, they have recorded 60 wRC+ over the last two weeks of play which is worst in the league.

Individually for the Padres, Manny Machado is on a six-game hit streak and has batted .346 with one home run during that time. He currently ranks 11th in the league for RBIs with 86.

Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread

The Astros are 66-67 against the run line this season. They have covered in just two of their last ten games.

Houston plans to start Jose Urquidy on the mound for the first time since June. Urquidy is 6-3 this season with a 3.38 ERA. Prior to his injury, Urquidy looked impressive on the mound. He has averaged 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings, and according to winnersandwhiners.com, the right-hander has limited opposing hitters to a .211 batting average in his 77.1 innings of work.

At one point, the Houston Astros were so dominant offensively that their stats now cover up how bad they have been recently. The Astros have failed to score a run in 19 innings and have hit only 12 home runs in the last two weeks. Still, the Astros have the best batting average in the league at .267 and are only striking out in 19.6% of their plate appearances.

Individually, Yordan Alvarez has the biggest bat for the Astros. He leads the team with 28 home runs and is also the team leader in RBIs with 89, which ranks eighth in the MLB.

Final Astros-Padres Prediction & Pick

The sportsbooks have the Astros listed as -127 moneyline favorites. That price seems way too low for a team that still leads the majors in nearly every offensive statistic and is coming into tonight’s game with a day of rest. And frankly, there is no better pitcher to get back in rhythm against than Jake Arrieta.

For those reasons, take the Houston Astros to win, but pass on a run line play as the Padres are 23-7 in their last 30 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter via Covers.com.