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MLB Odds: Blue Jays vs. Phillies prediction, odds and pick – 9/21/2022

Blue Jays Phillies prediction

The Toronto Blue Jays (84-64) are set to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (80-67) in the second of a brief two-game series Wednesday night. Kevin Gausman (12-10) is projected to start for the Blue Jays, while Zack Wheeler (11-7) will take the bump for the Phillies. First pitch is slated for 6:45 ET. Here we’ll continue our MLB odds series with a Blue Jays-Phillies prediction and pick.

Kevin Gausman gets the start tonight as he’ll look to right the ship after a string of subpar performances. The Blue Jays’ ace has allowed 5 runs in two straight appearances and has given up a home run in four straight games. For the season, Gausman has been one of the better pitchers in baseball. The righty holds a 3.45 ERA and is near the top of the league in strikeouts. Notably, Gausman has been much better on the road than in Toronto, as his ERA minimizes to a clean 2.45 in 14 away starts.

For Philadelphia, Zack Wheeler returns from  IL making his first appearance in over a month. When healthy, Wheeler has been stellar this season. In 23 games, Wheeler holds a 3.07 ERA despite some rough starts prior to his IL stint. Wheeler has been particularly effective in Philadelphia this season, maintaining a pristine 1.95 ERA in home starts.

Here are the Blue Jays-Phillies MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Blue Jays-Phillies Odds

Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (+158)

Philidelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-192)

Over: 8.5 (-102)

Under: 8.5 (-120)

Why The Blue Jays Could Cover The Spread

Toronto comes into tonight’s game fresh off an offensive explosion against the Phillies on Tuesday. Every Blue Jays starter recorded a hit en route to an 18-11 victory. DH Alejandro Kirk recorded 3 hits for Toronto, continuing his solid play in 2022. Kirk leads the team with a .298 batting average but is certainly not the only hitter producing for Toronto.

The Blue Jays’ duo of Vladimir Guerro Jr. and Bo Bichette have pieced together incredibly productive seasons. Vlad Jr. leads the team in home runs with 29 but is one of five Blue Jays players to hit at least 20 homers this season. Bichette is one of those five as he has paced the team with 89 RBIs. Guerro Jr. in particular has been hot as of late – having hit .320 across his last six games.

The first baseman’s play of late has been much appreciated for a Toronto team looking to lock down a playoff bid. Despite sitting 5.5 games back in the American League East, Toronto holds the first Wildcard spot by a considerable margin. Although the team is 6-4 in their last 10 games, the Blue Jays seem well positioned to clinch a playoff spot in the coming weeks. For the season, Toronto is 3-0 against the Phillies. A win tonight would clinch a season sweep of Philadelphia – something to consider in making a Blue Jays-Phillies prediction.

Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread

If you told Phillies’ manager, Rob Thomson his team would score 11 runs in a game, you would think he’d be pretty pleased. Not last night. Despite putting up double-digit runs themselves, the Phillies still managed to lose by 7 runs to Toronto on Tuesday. Last night’s loss was particularly heart-wrenching as it was Philly’s 5th straight defeat after they were swept by division rival Atlanta over the weekend.

The offense was the bright spot for Philadelphia in their loss. Catcher JT Realmuto went a perfect 5-5, including a 9th inning homerun that brought the game within 7. Outfielder Kyle Schwarber continued his power surge with his NL-leading 40th homerun. Philadelphia will need to bring that same offensive approach to tonight’s game if they’re going to be able to snap their 5-game skid as Toronto will send their ace Kevin Gausman to close out the short series.

If there is any silver lining in facing a pitcher of Gausman’s caliber, it is that the Phillies’ best hitters have historically done quite well against the righty. The aforementioned Schwarber has faced Gausman in just 5 at-bats in his career but has homered in 3 of them. 2nd baseman Jean Segura has hit .462 against Gausman throughout his career, but it is the play of star Bryce Harper that has Phillies fans excited against the Toronto ace.

For his career, Harper holds an unworldly .619 on-base percentage against Kevin Gausman. Harper can’t help but get on base when the righty comes to town. The Phillies will need that version of Bryce Harper tonight. For the season, Harper is hitting .298 but has appeared in just 85 games. Philadelphia has to hope Harper can get on a hot streak going forward as they rapidly approach the end of the regular season.

A win tonight would be massive for the Phillies in their hopes for a playoff bid. Despite losing 5 straight, Philadelphia still holds the final Wildcard spot in the NL but by just 2.5 games.

Final Blue Jays-Phillies Prediction & Pick

The Phillies are too good of a team to be swept for the season by anyone. With the prior success of Harper and Schwarber against Gausman, and Wheeler coming off extended rest – I’m going with the Phillies.

Final Blue Jays-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-192)