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MLB odds: Braves vs. Phillies prediction, odds, pick, and more – 7/22/2021

Braves Phillies prediction odds pick

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves will open a four-game set at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday afternoon. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Braves-Phillies prediction and pick.

This is a highly touted series as both clubs are in the midst of a tight battle in the NL East. Philadelphia is just one game ahead of the Braves for the second spot in the division, and both are within 4.5 games of the first-place Mets. The Phillies have owned this season series with wins in seven of the first 12 head-to-head matchups.

Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Braves-Phillies odds.

MLB Odds: Braves-Phillies Odds

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Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+111)

Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-131)

Over 8.5 Runs (-119)

Under 8.5 Runs (-101)

Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread

The Braves are still in the hunt in the NL East despite a plethora of problems over the past few weeks. Ronald Acuna Jr. is out for the season, Marcell Ozuna is dealing with legal issues, and some key pitchers are currently on the shelf. Atlanta refuses to give up, however, sitting just 4.5 games back of the Mets in a division that is certainly up for grabs. The Braves have struggled lately with losses in four of their last six games to date and sit at 20-23 on the road.

Atlanta will turn to right-hander Charlie Morton for the series opener. Morton has been solid for the Braves with a 8-3 record and 3.69 ERA through 19 starts. He has struck out an impressive 122 batters through 105 innings of work. The veteran starter has been consistently improving this season and has a 2.93 ERA through his last seven starts to date. Morton is currently 1-2 with a 3.09 ERA against the Phillies this season.

Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread

The Phillies will be looking to bounce back after getting swept by the Yankees in New York to start the week. They played in two tight games in New York and watched their bullpen blow close games, which should come as no surprise. The Phillies lead the league in blown saves and have been dragged down by their relievers all year long. Philadelphia has played much better at home with a 27-17 record at Citizens Bank Park. They are 5-2 over their last seven home games and have been far more effective on the defensive end.

Philadelphia will hand the ball to left-hander Matt Moore as it looks to bounce back with a home victory. Moore has been ineffective this season with a 0-1 record and 5.25 ERA through 13 appearances and seven starts. He has been improving lately with a 3.27 ERA through his last seven outings and four starts. The veteran southpaw has allowed two runs over four innings in each of his last three starts to date.

Final Braves-Phillies Prediction & Pick

The surging Phillies ran into a hotter team in New York and should have no problem returning to form against a depleted Braves club. The Phillies have been far more effective at home this season, which is why they have to be thrilled to play this crucial four-game set at Citizens Bank Park. The Braves will likely fall apart down the stretch, and this is where it all could begin. Philadelphia has owned the season series and should enter this contest with the utmost confidence.

FINAL PICK: Philadelphia Phillies ML (+123)