The Milwaukee Brewers will take on the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Brewers-Padres prediction and pick.
This is one of the best matchups in the entire MLB. The Brewers are currently leading the NL Central with a 26-16 record. That record has earned them a two-game lead in the hotly contested division. The Padres have an even better record at 28-13, but unfortunately for them, they play in the NL West. The Los Angeles Dodgers are still the kings of the west, meaning that San Diego is in second place in the division. The first game of this series went into extras, so it's fair to expect this matchup to be another exciting one. Let's cut to the chase and get into the pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Brewers-Padres MLB odds:
MLB Odds: Brewers-Padres Odds
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+136)
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-164)
Over: 7 (+104)
Under: 7 (-128)
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Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
Milwaukee has relied on elite pitching to win games for several seasons now, and this game is no different. Starting pitcher Corbin Burnes will take the mound in this contest, something that typically works out well for the Brewers. Burnes, the reigning NL Cy Young award winner, has been excellent this season. He's posted a 2.26 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP on the year, stats that should make him the favorite to repeat as a Cy Young winner. Burnes is as close to a lock as you can get for a good pitching performance, even against an offense as good as San Diego's.
San Diego starter Blake Snell hasn't had quite the same success as Burnes this season. To be fair, Snell has only started one game this year. That one start went incredibly poorly. Snell allowed three runs over 3.2 innings while walking three batters. It's clear that Snell has some rust to knock off, and this deadly Brewers lineup should be able to take advantage of that.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
There's something to be said for momentum, and the Padres certainly have that going for them here. San Diego has won each of their last five games while going 10-4 over their last 14 contests. They've also only lost one series in the last month of baseball. The pitching staff has been a huge part of that run, as the Padres have only allowed their opponents to score more than three runs in one of their last nine games. It's clear that the Padres are red-hot, and that the bullpen is pitching well. Both of those factors should help them keep things close in this game against one of the MLB's best teams.
Home field advantage will certainly benefit San Diego in this one. The Brewers are a significantly worse offensive team when they play on the road, as they see their batting average drop from .249 at home to .228 anywhere else. Milwaukee sees similar drops in OBP, slugging percentage and OPS. The Brewers also have a much lower winning percentage when they play anywhere but American Family Field. Overall, the Padres will benefit hugely from playing this game in Petco Park.
Final Brewers-Padres Prediction & Pick
This is a tough pick, but Milwaukee is the selection. The odds are right to try and pick the Brewers to cover the spread, even though they're on the road.
Final Brewers-Padres Prediction & Pick: Brewers: -1.5 (+136)
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