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MLB odds: Brewers vs. Pirates prediction, odds, pick, and more – 7/29/2021

Brewers Pirates prediction odds pick

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Milwaukee Brewers will finish their three-game series on Thursday night. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Brewers-Pirates prediction and pick.

The Brewers have taken the first two games of this series and will be playing for the sweep. Milwaukee has one of the most secure division leads in all of MLB. The Brewers are dominating the NL Central with a seven-game lead over their closest opponent. Unfortunately for the Pirates, they aren’t exactly rivaling Milwaukee for the division crown. Pittsburgh has been out of the playoff race since the season started and now trail the Brewers by 21.5 games. The Pirates knew this wasn’t their year coming into the season, but they would love to pull off a nice upset win to avoid the sweep.

Here’s how the bookmakers have set the lines for Thursday night’s series finale.

MLB Odds: Brewers-Pirates Odds

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Milwaukee Brewers -1 1/2 (-114)

Pittsburgh Pirates +1 1/2 (-106)

Over 8 runs (-114)

Under 8 runs (-106)

Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread

Milwaukee starting pitcher Freddy Peralta has been less than perfect against Pittsburgh in the past, but his season-long numbers speak for themselves. He owns a 2.29 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP on the year so far. Both are truly elite numbers, so he should be able to dominate one of the worst offenses in the MLB.

To make matters even better for Peralta, the Pirates just shipped off their best player to the San Diego Padres. Adam Frazier was the Pirates’ best hitter by a wide margin, so Peralta’s job just got that much easier.

The Brewers will face Pittsburgh pitcher Chad Kuhl in this ball game. Kuhl has been one of Pittsburgh’s best pitchers for the entire season, earning himself a 4.38 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP on the year. Both are decent numbers, but the Brewers have caused trouble for Kuhl in the past. The righty has faced Milwaukee twice this season, combining to pitch eight innings and give up eight runs against the Brew Crew. There’s no reason to think that the Brewers’ offense will slow down against Kuhl this time.

 

Why The Pirates Could Cover The Spread

The Pirates will entrust the previously mentioned starter Chad Kuhl for this series finale.  Kuhl’s season-long numbers aren’t bad, and they get even better over Kuhl’s last seven starts. He has posted a 3.50 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over that span, both good numbers.

Kuhl has a couple more stats going his way. He has allowed a 5.8% barrel percentage and a 35.1% hard-hit percentage on the year, meaning he specializes in limiting hard-hit balls from his opponents. The Brewers already struggle in both of those categories, so Kuhl should be able to keep hard-hit balls to a minimum.

The Pirates offense will face the aforementioned Freddy Peralta in this one. Peralta has had a great year, but for some reason, the Pirates just seem to have his number. Five Pittsburgh starters are hitting .250 or above against Peralta. He has also faced the Pirates twice this season, giving up a combined five runs over 11 innings of work.

Final Brewers-Pirates Prediction & Pick

The under is the best bet in this game. The Pirates are horrible on offense and the Brewers aren’t exactly an offensive powerhouse either. The final score will be close to cracking it, but the under should survive by one or two runs.

FINAL PICK: Under 8 runs (-114)