Two of the more historic franchises in the National League go head-to-head as the Chicago Cubs go up against the New York Mets at Citi Field in Queens. It is time to take a look at our MLB odds series where our Cubs-Mets prediction and pick will be made.
While it's been more of “No, Cubs, No” rather than “Go, Cubs, Go”, the Cubbies surprised baseball with a 5-2 triumphant win on Monday over the Mets. After jumping out to a 3-0 lead, Chicago will want to do more of the same as they send out righty hurler Adrian Sampson to win a second straight over New York. In 14 regular season starts, Sampson is 1-5 with a 3.76 ERA.
After a discouraging loss at home to a lesser Cubs squad, the Mets are fighting for their division title lives as the Atlanta Braves continue to be on New York's heels. Getting the start in this one for New York will be the ace himself in Jacob deGrom, who is 5-1 with a 1.66 ERA through his seven starts on the year.
Here are the Cubs-Mets MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Cubs-Mets Odds
Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (+155)
New York Mets: -1.5 (-188)
Over: 6.5 (-120)
Under: 6.5 (-102)
Why The Cubs Could Cover The Spread
With the chance to secure the series victory with a win on Tuesday, the Cubs must take advantage of every single opportunity thrown their way. Similar to yesterday's triumph, the Cubs must start off fast and not let up in any way whatsoever.
While there aren't many matchups for hitters as difficult as the one that Chicago is soon to face against deGrom, the Cubbies have surprisingly possessed the 15th-best slugging percentage and have also maintained a slightly standard .241 batting average on the season. Not to mention, but names like shortstop Nico Hoerner, third-baseman Patrick Wisdom, and left-fielder Ian Happ have provided the Cubs with some offensive firepower. Don't be surprised if one of these young playmakers pops off en route to covering the spread.
Alas, the biggest difference-maker in this game is hands down Adrian Simpson and his ability to go toe-to-toe with Jacob deGrom. At first glance, Simpson's numbers aren't necessarily great, but he has found some sort of rhythm of late including his last start on Thursday when he tossed six innings and only gave up one run versus the Reds. Simpson's lone start against the Mets came on July 17th in a two-run effort over the course of 5 1/3 innings pitched. If the 30-year-old twirler can mirror both of these starts, then the Cubs will certainly have a puncher's chance to get the job done this evening.
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
Obviously, the type of losses like the one against the Cubs is something that the Mets cannot afford to do in an extremely tight race out in the NL East. Luckily, the team they are battling with, the Atlanta Braves, is in the midst of a three-game losing streak, so the game one loss against Chicago was a missed opportunity if anything for the Mets to extend their 1.5-game lead in the division. Regardless, New York should be primed to have a big bounce back later this evening.
For starters, this Mets offense should have their way with a below-average Cubs pitching unit. Statistically, New York remains one of the top-hitting teams at the plate in all of North America. As a whole, the Mets have slashed .259 as a team and also currently sport the second-best on-base percentage with a 3.30 mark. Because of this, New York has the ability to wreak havoc on the base paths which ultimately puts pressure on the opposing pitchers to pitch with more efficiency. If New York can stay patient while at the plate, expect them to score runs in a hurry.
Also, by stating the obvious, the Mets will only need a few runs of support for Jacob deGrom, as the 34-year-old shutdown ace has posted a combined 3.13 ERA in ten career starts versus the Cubs.
Final Cubs-Mets Prediction & Pick
While the Cubs were able to beat the Mets yesterday, Chicago is in for a tough ask as they go up against one of the best pitchers in the game in Jacob deGrom. While Chicago may keep it close in the early going, Sampson will find it difficult to last against a Cy Young Award winner in deGrom.
Final Cubs-Mets Prediction & Pick: Mets -1.5 (-188)
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