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MLB Odds: Cubs vs. Phillies prediction, odds and pick – 7/23/2022

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Cubs, Phillies, MLB

The Chicago Cubs will battle the Philadelphia Phillies again on Saturday at Citizens Bank Park. It’s time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Cubs-Phillies prediction and pick.

The Cubs devoured the Phillies 15-1 on Friday night. Kyle Schwarber got the Phillies on the board early by blasting a solo home run. The homer was his 30th on the season, giving the Phillies a 1-0 lead. The Phillies looked to be in control of the game until the fourth inning came around. Then, Willson Contreras clobbered a shot to deep left field. The home run was his 13th in 2022, tying the game at 1-1. Next, Christopher Morel clipped an RBI double in the fifth inning, bringing two in, giving the Cubs a 3-1 lead. Ian Happ followed with an RBI single to right, making it 4-1. Then, Nico Hoerner plucked an RBI double to left-center to make it 6-1. Patrick Wisdom finished the inning with an RBI double, pushing the lead to 7-1.

The Cubs look to continue the momentum while the Phillies attempt to figure out what went wrong. Ultimately, it was a night of punchless offense for the Phillies and bad pitching. The absence of Bryce Harper is being felt, the Phillies must continue to persevere. However, they also must pitch better and relieve the pressure off their tired bullpen. The Cubs will send Marcus Strowman to the mound today, and the Phillies will roll with Zack Wheeler.

Here are the Cubs-Phillies MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Cubs-Phillies Odds

Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-152)

Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+126)

Over: 8 (-112)

Under: 8 (-108)

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Why The Cubs Could Cover The Spread

Strowman is 2-5 with a 4.69 ERA for the Cubs. Additionally, he is 0-0 with a 1.08 ERA over two starts in July. Strowman is also 2-2 with a 2.45 ERA over six road starts. Historically, he is 4-4 with a 2.62 ERA over 10 games (nine starts) against the Phillies. He is 2-2 with a 1.93 ERA in his 5 appearances at Citizens Bank Park.

Strowman has some backup as the Cubs hope to replicate what they did last night. Contreras is batting .285 (2 for 7) with an RBI in his career against Wheeler. Likewise, Hoerner is 2 for 3 in his career against Wheeler. The rest of the Chicago lineup has not faced Wheeler much, or at all. Likewise, it is a young Cubs lineup with potential but many growing pains. They hope to keep the momentum from last night going.

The Cubs will cover the spread if they get a good outing out of Strowman. Also, they need their bullpen to hold the fort and their hitters to continue the production from last night. The goal is to prove that last night’s game was not a fluke and that the Cubbies can produce regularly.

Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread

Wheeler is a consistent pitcher as he is 8-5 with a 2.89 ERA. Wheeler is 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA over three starts in July. Recently, he lasted just 4 2/3 innings, allowing six earned runs on seven hits. Wheeler has a 5-2 record with a 1.62 ERA over nine starts at Citizens Bank Park. However, he has not been wheeling and dealing as much against the Cubs in his career, as he is 2-2 with a 4.54 ERA over six starts. Wheeler will look to improve his marks against the Cubs today.

Losing Harper has hurt the Phillies. They were the hottest team in the league until he got hurt. Now, they rely on Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, Nick Castellanos, and J.T. Realmuto to drive the offense. When these guys do not click, the offense struggles, as last night proved. The Phillies need all four guys to produce to have a chance to win most games. Schwarber is batting .428 (3 for 7) in his career against Strowman. However, Hoskins has struggled against Strowman, batting .091 (1 for 11) against the Cubs’ starter. Castellanos has faced Strowman the most, batting .118 (2 for 17) against him throughout his career. Alternatively, Realmuto has done okay against Strowman, batting .357 (5 for 14) against the pitcher. How well these hitters do against Strowman may determine if the Phillies can rebound from last night. 

The Phillies will cover the spread if Wheeler can stop the bleeding, and lead the Phillies on his back. He must have a good game, going at least six innings and limiting the Cubs to three or fewer earned runs. Also, the offense needs to click. It is inconsistent and not producing at the level they were a few weeks ago. 

Final Cubs-Phillies Prediction & Pick

Last night was likely an aberration. Also, the Cubs are not that good. Expect them to fall back down to Earth and for the Phillies to cover the spread this time. 

Final Cubs-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+126)