The Los Angeles Dodgers look to put the finishing touches on the Arizona Diamondbacks and sweep the series from their NL West competitors. Let’s continue our MLB odds series and make a Diamondbacks-Dodgers prediction and pick.
Los Angeles currently stands at 93-53 and is 51-23 at home. If you put $100 on every single Dodgers game so far this season, you’d be down $317 on the moneyline.
Arizona currently stands at 47-98 and is 19-55 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Diamondbacks game so far this season, you’d be down $3,419 on the moneyline.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Diamondbacks-Dodgers odds.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks-Dodgers Odds
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Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+296)
Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-335)
Over 8 Runs (-113)
Under 8 Runs (-107)
Why The Diamondbacks Could Win This Game
Arizona sends Merrill Kelly to the mound to attempt to salvage a game of the series.
Kelly’s numbers don’t exactly pop off the page. Over 24 starts, he holds a 4.30 ERA. But there are several bright spots to Kelly’s season that could give Arizona hope.
For one, Kelly is an innings eater. In 24 starts, he’s gone at least five innings in all but two outings. This is massively important to a Diamondbacks team that does not have reliable relievers.
Secondly, the righty controls the strike zone and the long ball, which are must-haves against this Dodgers team. Kelly sports a very respectable 2.09 BB/9 rate and 1.14 HR/9 rate, both around league average and only a touch worse than Julio Urias.
Kelly isn’t going to be mowing guys down, but he has the potential to limit this Dodgers lineup. He has even actually done so in the past. In 18 2/3 innings and three starts against the Dodgers, Kelly has allowed seven earned runs and gave his team a chance to win.
On the other side, the Arizona bats have a tough matchup against Urias. The only bright spot for the Diamondbacks is the fact that their team hits lefties significantly better than righties.
Arizona’s OPS jumps almost 100 points when a southpaw takes the mound (.666 against righties, .750 against lefties). Even though only 29% of their at-bats have been against lefties all year, 34% of the Diamondbacks’ extra base hits have come against them.
The best bet is to ambush Urias early and hope for some instant damage. If he starts to get on a roll, it’ll be nearly impossible to do serious damage.
Why The Dodgers Could Win This Game
Los Angeles has absolutely dominated the Diamondbacks this year, winning 13 out of 15 games against them so far. With Urias on the mound, that figure is likely to improve.
The Dodgers lefty has been filthy all year. It’s almost unfair to add a guy who has pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA through 28 starts to a rotation that already has Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer, and Clayton Kershaw.
Unfortunately for the Diamondbacks, Urias has been nearly unhittable of late. Over his last seven starts, Urias’ ERA is a measly 1.17. He has 43 strikeouts, eight walks, and just two homers allowed in those 38 2/3 innings.
Included in that span is a five-inning scoreless start against Arizona, in which Urias struck out seven. Not included is the only other start the lefty has had against the Diamondbacks this year, in which he allowed only one run in 6 2/3 innings.
Long story short, Urias has been dominant this year and has owned the Diamondbacks. With an elite bullpen at his back, Arizona’s chances of getting a handful of runs on the board are slim to none.
On the other hand, this Dodgers offense is heating up. The Los Angeles bats have scored five or more runs in four straight games now, the first time they’ve accomplished this feat in over a month.
Merrill Kelly must face a nightmare lineup that is peaking at the right time. Even worse news for Kelly is that these guys have historically seen him well.
There are six Dodgers with nine or more at-bats against Kelly: Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Will Smith, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, and Cody Bellinger. Not a single one of them is batting lower than .270 against Kelly in their lifetime. Combined, this group is 27-for-72 off Kelly for a .375 batting average and five homers.
Kelly has held the Dodgers in check in the past, but it remains to be seen how much longer he can keep this team from breaking through.
Final Diamondbacks-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
While the Dodgers should almost certainly win this game, you should never bet on -335 ML favorites in baseball as a rule of thumb. Kelly has shown us he can handle the Dodgers, so taking L.A. to win by three runs is also a shaky alternative. The one thing I’m most confident in is Julio Urias’ ability to shut down this lineup. Considering how the Diamondbacks perform offensively on the road and how Urias has pitched of late, I’d be surprised to see them score more than two runs. Take the under on the team total for Arizona.
FINAL DIAMONDBACKS-DODGERS PREDICTION & PICK: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS UNDER 2.5 RUNS (-115)