The Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Colorado Rockies. Check out our MLB odds series for our Diamondbacks Rockies prediction and pick.
Merrill Kelly goes to the mound for the Diamondbacks, while Antonio Senzatela takes the hill for the Rockies.
Merrill Kelly has a 3.64 ERA in an up-and-down season. He was spectacular in April, when the Diamondbacks surged above .500 and overachieved. Kelly posted a 1.27 ERA that month. Then he came crashing down to earth in May. Kelly was hammered that month, tagged with a 6.31 ERA. In June, he leveled out, posting a 3.60 ERA for the month. In June, Kelly gave up these run totals in his five starts over the course of the month, in the following order from June 3-24: three runs, zero runs, five runs, one run, four runs. Kelly shows that he is capable of performing at a high level, but he also shows the inconsistency which has marked his season to this point in time. The Diamondbacks don't need to see Kelly reach a higher ceiling. What they really need is for him to attain a higher floor, so that he reduces the degree of variance between or among his starts.
Antonio Senzatela has a 4.66 ERA. He pitched to a 3.66 ERA in April but then regressed in May by registering a 6.30 ERA. He got hurt in his May 16 start and missed two weeks. He returned on June 1 and posted a 4.76 ERA in the month of June. Senzatela's month of June was worse than Merrill Kelly's June, but the pattern of inconsistency from one start to the next is noticeably similar. Senzatela's five June starts featured these run totals: six runs allowed, one run allowed, three runs allowed, one run allowed, four runs allowed. In June, Senzatela gave up 41 hits in 28 1/3 innings. That's a ton of hits.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Diamondbacks-Rockies MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks-Rockies Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+158)
Colorado Rockies: +1.5 (-192)
Over: 12 (-106)
Under: 12 (-114)
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Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover the Spread
Merrill Kelly is a better pitcher than Antonio Senzatela. Both pitchers have been inconsistent, but Kelly's average start is better than Senzatela's average start. Senzatela does a slightly worse job of pitching out of jams and containing damage. Both men need to find ways to reduce the number of runners on base when they pitch. Arizona, though, has the pitcher who has demonstrated more quality this season, albeit to a modest extent. The Diamondbacks just saw the San Diego Padres' pitching staff. The Rockies' staff, by comparison, should be a lot more hittable.
Why The Rockies Could Cover the Spread
After winning a series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Rockies should feel very confident that they can build some momentum at home against the Diamondbacks, whose offense is struggling and is therefore not in a good position to maximize the benefits of Coors Field as a hitter's park. Senzatela has not had a very good year, but Merrill Kelly has struggled in recent weeks. The Rockies should feel they can get more from the top of their batting order and get big hits versus the D-Backs.
Final Diamondbacks-Rockies Prediction & Pick
If you don't trust these teams — and you shouldn't — go with the under for the simple reason that the Diamondbacks are not an especially strong offensive team.
Final Diamondbacks-Rockies Prediction & Pick: Under 12