The Miami Marlins will host the Los Angeles Dodgers for the first of a four-game set on Monday night. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Dodgers-Marlins prediction and pick.
Los Angeles is one of the hottest teams in the league right now as they have won nine straight games coming in. They are now 53-31 and just a half-game back of the Giants for the lead in the loaded NL West. Miami, on the other hand, has lost 12 of their last 18 games to date. They are now nine games back of the Mets in the NL East and slipping further as the rest of the division surges.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Dodgers-Marlins odds.
MLB Odds: Dodgers-Marlins Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+106)
Miami Marlins +1.5 (-126)
Over 7 Runs (-115)
Under 7 Runs (-105)
Why The Dodgers Could Cover The Spread
Los Angeles has had a bit of an up-and-down season to their standards this far. The defending champs were falling off a bit in May and June but have really surged back in a big way with nine straight wins. They have looked very impressive during the winning streak as they’ve outscored their opponents by 29 runs. The Dodgers have owned the Marlins as well with wins in eight of their last 10 head-to-head matchups.
The Dodgers offense has been stellar this season as they’re averaging 5.10 runs per game, which is the fourth-best mark in the Majors. They’ve actually fared slightly better on the road with 5.21 runs per game. Los Angeles allows the third-fewest runs per game as well, making them arguably the most complete team in the league this season. The Dodgers have a +1.21 run differential in road games.
Los Angeles will turn to right-hander Walker Buehler for the series opener. Buehler has been lights out this season with an 8-1 record and 2.35 ERA through 16 starts. The righty has been especially good over his last seven starts with a 5-1 record and 1.80 ERA. He tossed 6.2 innings of shutout ball against the Giants in his last start.
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
The Miami Marlins seemed to be turning a corner last season as they made the postseason for the first time in 16 years. The future is definitely bright in Miami, but the Marlins faithful will likely be forced to wait at least one more season. The Marlins have lost 12 of their last 18 games to fall to 35-47 on the season.
Miami has a ton of promising talent on both sides of the ball and actually possesses a positive run differential on the year. The Marlins average 3.96 runs scored and 3.72 runs allowed per game. Miami is 18-18 at home thanks to a +0.75 run differential at loanDepot Park. Their defense has been stellar as they allow just 3.33 runs per game on their home field.
The Marlins will turn to left-hander Trevor Rogers for the series opener. Rogers has been terrific this season with a 7-5 record and 2.14 ERA through 16 starts. His strikeout numbers are impressive as the southpaw has punched out 110 batters through 92.1 innings of work. Rogers has allowed no more than three earned runs in at least five innings of work in each of his last three starts to date.
Final Dodgers-Marlins Prediction & Pick
In a game that sees two pitchers with sub-2.30 ERA’s going toe-to-toe, I expect runs to be at a premium. Seven of the Dodgers’ last nine games have finished under the total and there is no reason to believe that trend will end here. The Marlins offense has struggled this season and the defense has been impressive. Each of Trevor Rogers’ last three starts have finished under the total as well.
FINAL PICK: Under 7 Runs (-105)
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