MLB odds: Giants vs. Padres prediction, odds, pick, and more – 9/21/2021
The San Francisco Giants head south to start a key NL West series with the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night. With National League playoff spots and positioning on the line, let’s continue our MLB odds series and make a Giants-Padres prediction and pick.
San Diego currently stands at 76-73 and is 44-31 at home. If you put $100 on every single Padres game so far this season, you’d be down $2,091 on the moneyline.
San Francisco currently stands at 97-53 and is 48-27 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Giants game so far this season, you’d be up $3,133 on the moneyline.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Giants-Padres odds.
MLB Odds: Giants-Padres Odds
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San Francisco Giants ML (-105)
San Diego Padres ML (-115)
Over 7.5 Runs (-105)
Under 7.5 Runs (-115)
Why The Giants Could Win This Game
With their lead in the NL West down to one game over the Dodgers, this is as much a must win for the Giants as it is for the Padres. San Francisco will send one of their best arms to the mound in Kevin Gausman looking to extend their division lead.
Gausman holds an impressive ERA of 2.78 through 30 starts with the Giants this season. San Francisco has gone 19-11 when the righty takes the mound.
Gausman’s biggest strength this season has been his ability to rack up strikeouts. Over 175 innings, he’s struck out a whopping 208 batters. He’s struck out at least six in 21 of 30 appearances. Gausman has already shown he’s capable of making the usually conservative Padres swing and miss.
In 24 innings against San Diego over four starts this year, he’s K’d 25 batters. More importantly, the Giants have won three of those four matchups, and Gausman has allowed less than one earned run over six plus innings in the wins.
The Giants bats don’t have an opposing pitcher to prepare against, but we can judge from the odds listed that it will probably be Joe Musgrove.
Unlike Gausman, Musgrove has been poor against his opponent tonight. In 16 innings against the Giants, Musgrove has allowed 12 earned runs.
The Giants have crushed Musgrove with what they do best: the homer and the walk. San Francisco has ambushed Musgrove with five homers over his 16 innings against them, and they have also drawn six walks.
If Musgrove is the starter, the Giants lineup should be salivating at the chance to get to him for the fourth time this year.
Why The Padres Could Win This Game
Considering Joe Musgrove hasn’t pitched in five days and the Padres are in desperate territory, we can assume San Diego will send their best pitcher this year to the mound on Tuesday night.
Musgrove currently holds a 2.99 ERA and has been the rock of the Padres rotation, making 29 starts this year. Of his 29 starts, Musgrove has gone five or more innings and allowed three or less earned runs in 20 of those contests.
The hometown boy has shown flashes of brilliance (like when he threw the Padres’ first no-hitter), but his strongest asset has been his ability to keep San Diego in nearly every game he’s pitched, whether he has his best stuff or not.
Unlike his counterpart tonight, Musgrove has been very good of late. Through August and September, his ERA is 3.10. Gausman, on the other hand, has really struggled.
The Giants starter has a 4.24 ERA in that same span, and has looked extremely shaky of late. In his last outing against the Padres, Gausman’s pitches looked flat, and he was hammered for eight hits and four earned runs in just five innings.
On top of this, the San Diego bats have some good history against Gausman. Fernando Tatis Jr. has dominated him, going 5-11 with two home runs this season. Adam Frazier is batting .346 against Gausman in 26 at-bats, and Tommy Pham is 6-12 with three RBI against him.
When the Padres offense is clicking, it’s a sight to see. They’ve scored 7+ runs in four of their last ten games. However, it is boom or bust, as they’ve scored two or less runs in five of those ten. Considering the way Gausman has been pitching, the odds lean towards this offense breaking out.
Final Giants-Padres Prediction & Pick
Before placing a bet, I’d wait until the Padres confirm they are starting Musgrove, just to be safe. However, there is a bet that stands out to me immediately, and that’s the over.
Gausman has not looked like an ace at all of late, pitching to a 4.34 ERA in his last five starts. Musgrove has gotten shelled by the Giants twice already this year. Even if the Padres don’t start him (which would make little sense considering the position they’re in), a bullpen game should mean more Giants runs either way. Both teams should be able to get in the neighborhood of four runs apiece tonight. Play the over.
FINAL GIANTS-PADRES PREDICTION: OVER 7.5 RUNS (-115)