The Marlins and Reds begin a four-game series in Cincinnati on Thursday. This will be the club's first meeting of the 2021 season. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Marlins-Reds prediction and pick.
While the Marlins are far out of playoff contention, the Reds sit less than two games from the National League's second wild card spot. This upcoming series against a lowly Marlins team can do wonders for the Reds postseason chances, especially with the Padres slipping out of that wild card spot too.
Both teams played the struggling Cubs very recently, and the results were flip-flopped compared to what you might expect. The Reds lost two out of three games to the Cubs, while the Marlins brought the brooms out and swept Chicago. However, the Marlins great play was short lived, as they went on to subsequently be swept by the Braves.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the Marlins-Reds odds for Sunday’s game.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Reds Odds
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Miami Marlins +185
Cincinnati Reds -225
Over 8 runs (-115)
Under 8 runs (-105)
Why The Reds Could Win
On paper, the Reds are by far the better team in this series, and they are primarily led by their power-happy offense. Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, and Nick Castellanos have all hit over 20 home runs thus far for the Reds this season. This game is at Great American Ballpark too, which always tends to play as a hitter-friendly stadium. The Reds need a series against a weak opponent like the Marlins to jump higher into the standings, and they'll get a great chance to do so in the series opener with Luis Castillo on the hill. Although Castillo's ERA sits at a not-so-great 4.51 for the season, part of that is because he had a couple real disastrous outings, allowing eight runs in a game on multiple occasions. Over a six start span in July, Castillo put together a 2.15 ERA, demonstrating he has the capability to be a dominant pitcher. His most recent start was a quality start against the Phillies in which he struck out eight batters. If Castillo can piece together another start of at least six innings and three or less earned runs around, this lineup has enough power in them to put more than enough runs up on the board. I'd expect one of either Votto, Suarez, or Castellanos to hit a long ball in tonight's contest. The Reds really need this win to regain momentum.
Why The Marlins Could Win
In 11 starts for the Marlins in 2021, Zach Thompson has been one of the Marlins best pitchers all season. He has struck out 48 batters and posted a 2.91 ERA since making his MLB debut for The Fish in early June. In all but three of his starts this year, Thompson has allowed two or less earned runs. Although the ballpark plays better for hitters, Thompson has demonstrated incredible poise as a rookie and should have no problem limiting damage, even against this Reds lineup.
At the plate, Jesus Aguilar remains the NL RBI leader, which is incredible considering the majority of the other Marlins hitters has been far from productive. In 59 career plate appearances at Great American Ballpark, Aguilar is batting .321 with four home runs. In the small ballpark, I think Aguilar can add to that total and hit another long ball to support Zach Thompson today. The Marlins are not playing for the playoffs at this point, but rebounding from an ugly Braves series and picking up a series opening win would be a good way to at least hurt the Reds playoff chances.
Final Reds-Marlins Prediction & Pick
I think the rookie Zach Thompson has the pitching edge here, and I'm counting on him to keep his season ERA under 3.00 with another impressive outing today. Between a quality start from Thompson and a big day at the plate from Aguilar, I see the Marlins coming out on top here, with Castillo having another rather rough start. Marlins win 7-3 and lengthen the Reds losing streak.
FINAL PICK: Marlins MONEYLINE +185
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