The New York Mets will take on the New York Yankees in game three of the long-awaited Subway Series on Sunday night. In the second half of a Fourth of July doubleheader that also marks the end of the series, both squads will be looking to improve their playoff standings against a crosstown rival. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Mets-Yankees prediction and pick.
Before we get into the pick, let's see how the bookmakers have set the lines for this nationally televised game.
MLB Odds: Mets-Yankees Odds
New York Mets ML (+138)
New York Yankees ML (-149)
Over 7 runs (-119)
Under 7 runs (-107)
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
The Mets will be able to take advantage of the fact that this is a seven-inning game. Projected starter Corey Oswalt will make his third appearance of the season and his first appearance as a starter in this one, which would usually not inspire any confidence. But Oswalt was solid in his first two appearances, earning an ERA of 1.42 and a WHIP of 1.42. These numbers will obviously go up with more appearances, but they show some of Oswalt's potential. I like the Mets ‘ chances of winning if he can get through three innings without too much damage and turn the game over to the Mets' bullpen.
Helping Oswalt is the fact that the Yankees struggle more against right-handed pitching than they do against lefties. They have lower offensive numbers across the board when facing righties, which should encourage Oswalt and the rest of the pitching staff. The Bronx Bombers are also much worse when playing in the Bronx, scoring a lower batting average, OBP, and OPS when playing in their home stadium.
Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread
Unfortunately for the Mets, the seven-inning game factor also helps the Yankees, who plan to use the bullpen for the entire game. They'll start with reliever Nestor Cortes. Cortes has been fantastic for the Yankees so far, putting up an ERA of 1.02 and a nearly identical WHIP of 1.08. He's capable of going multiple innings, meaning that the rest of the Yankees' bullpen should come in with four or five innings left in the game.
Asking the relievers to handle four or five innings against the struggling Mets offense isn't a tall order. The Mets have scored more than four runs only twice in their last ten games, so they aren't exactly on fire. The Yankees bullpen is also full of good relievers, with five relievers owning ERAs below three.
While Corey Oswalt has been solid in his minimal time with the Mets, he hasn't faced an offense on par with the Yankees. The Yankees have an excellent chance of getting to an inexperienced pitcher making the first start of his career on national television in a rivalry game.
Final Mets-Yankees Prediction & Pick
This one is a pretty open and shut case. The Mets' pitching situation doesn't really inspire all that much confidence, and their offensive situation inspires even less. This may be a close one for a while, but the Yankees should walk away from this game with a series victory over the Mets.
FINAL PICK: New York Yankees ML (-149)
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