The Washington Nationals take on the Miami Marlins. Check out our MLB odds series for our Nationals Marlins prediction and pick.

Stephen Strasburg gets the start for the Nationals, while Trevor Rogers gets the call for the Marlins.

Stephen Strasburg was the 2019 World Series Most Valuable Player, leading the Nationals to their first world championship, which also marked the first World Series title won by a Washington, D.C., club since 1924. Strasburg pitched 36 1/3 innings in the 2019 postseason, going 5-0. He won his two World Series starts, both in Houston, enabling the Nats to come back from a 3-2 series deficit and beat the Astros in seven games. This remains the only World Series in which all seven games have been won by the visiting team.

Strasburg has barely pitched since the start of the 2020 pandemic season, throwing fewer than 27 innings. He returned to the minors just under a month ago. His rehabilitation has been a slow and extended process since having surgery in 2021.

On May 24, Strasburg allowed three runs in 2 2/3 innings for Class A Fredericksburg. He threw 61 pitches, 31 strikes, and hit 94 miles per hour on his fastball against the Salem Red Sox. Washington manager Dave Martinez has said the team took its time with Strasburg’s rehab so that he would be fully ready to return when the moment arrived. Strasburg will reportedly pitch without limitations in this game, meaning he won’t be on a pitch count. This is a centerpiece aspect of a Nationals Marlins pick.

Trevor Rogers has a 5.80 ERA. He has given up five runs in two of his last three starts and three of his last six. It has been a rough ride for him this season. Facing Strasburg could be a source of motivation for Rogers in this game, but motivation can only go so far. Rogers simply has to pitch better and show that he is capable of more than what he has shown this year. This is an undeniable truth connected to any Nationals Marlins prediction you might make, based on the current MLB odds.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Nationals-Marlins MLB odds.

MLB Odds: Nationals-Marlins Odds

Washington Nationals: +1.5 (-172)

Miami Marlins: -1.5 (+142)

Over: 8.5 (-110)

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Under: 8.5 (-110)

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Why The Nationals Could Cover the Spread

The Nationals are going to be excited to play for Stephen Strasburg, a great pitcher and one of the most important players in franchise history. Getting Strasburg back will create instant optimism in the clubhouse and boost every player in the dugout. It’s the shot in the arm a struggling team needs.

Going against a mediocre pitcher, the Nats should love their chances in this game. Trevor Rogers regularly gives up five runs in his starts. He sometimes pitches well, but he certainly hasn’t established high-level consistency. If Strasburg gives up no more than three runs and pitches into the sixth inning, the Nats should be in good shape, given this pitching matchup.

Why The Marlins Could Cover the Spread

After winning in extra innings on Wednesday and making sure they didn’t squander a nine-inning masterpiece from staff ace Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins — who have gone through some internal turmoil this week, connected to a bizarre team meeting called by manager Don Mattingly — should feel better about themselves. The weird team meeting, which was spoken of in a very odd way by Mattingly (he openly worried that his team would come out flat before Tuesday night’s game against Washington), didn’t lead to a collapse in team morale. The Marlins have hammered the Nats this season. They are 7-1 against Washington. We have no idea how well Strasburg will pitch; we do have an idea of how these two teams match up against each other.

Final Nationals-Marlins Prediction & Pick

If you know how Stephen Strasburg will perform in this game, you’re smarter than everyone else and should already be making loads of money. The rest of us should stay away from this game, because we don’t know what’s going to happen. No prediction on this game should be viewed with any confidence or firmness at all.

Final Nationals-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Nationals +1.5