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The Washington Nationals take on the New York Mets. Check out our MLB odds series for our Nationals Mets prediction and pick.
Patrick Corbin gets the ball for the Nationals, while Trevor Williams takes the mound for the Mets.
Patrick Corbin has a 6.30 ERA. He has given up 13 runs in his last three starts, encompassing 17 1/3 innings. He has allowed three runs or more in six of his last seven starts, and at least five runs in four of his last seven starts. He has been consistently poor this season, and given how well the Mets are hitting right now — they scored 13 runs on Monday against the Nationals — this will be a very difficult assignment for Corbin. Anyone trying to make a Nationals Mets prediction based on the current MLB odds will have to take this information into consideration.
Trevor Williams hasn't pitched beyond the fourth inning in any of his eight appearances this season. He has a 4.37 ERA, but given that he rarely pitches more than three or four innings per start, the fat ERA is due to a few bad appearances. Williams gave up four earned runs in four innings on May 21 against the Rockies. He gave up four earned runs in two innings on April 23 against the Diamondbacks. Those two appearances represent almost all the runs Williams has allowed this season: eight of his 11 earned runs. He has thrown shutouts in four of his appearances this season, including a 3 2/3-inning shutout in his most recent outing on May 25 against the Giants. If he goes four innings and allows one run, Buck Showalter will be fine with that. Given Corbin's limitations, Williams' main goal is to stay away from the big inning and prevent the Nationals from getting an early multi-run lead. Incorporate that line of thought into your Nationals Mets pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Nationals-Mets MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Nationals-Mets Odds
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (-125)
New York Mets: -1.5 (+104)
Over: 9 (-122)
Under: 9 (+100)
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Why The Nationals Could Cover the Spread
The Nationals know that the Mets, as good as they are, had not won four games in a row at any point this season before Monday night. Do the Nationals Mets odds suggest that the Mets are going to make it five in a row? Yes … but the Mets still have to cross that threshold first. Even the best teams are going to have a clunker at some point. Look at the Dodgers, who swept the Diamondbacks four straight and then played a bad game on Monday at home against the Pirates. The Mets are a really good team, but they are going to play a bad game at some point. Patrick Corbin is not pitching well, but he is going to have a moderately decent or competent game at some point as well. Things do even out to an extent over the course of a very long baseball season. This is a spot where that can happen.
Why The Mets Could Cover the Spread
After blasting the Nationals' best starting pitcher, Erick Fedde, on Monday, the Mets should be able to feast at the table and hammer Patrick Corbin. The Mets are a strong team for many reasons, but one of the biggest keys to their success is that whenever an opponent scores a few runs against them, they regularly hit back in the next half-inning. This is exactly what they did against the Nats on Monday. Washington scored three in the top of the first. The Mets came right back with two and set the tone for their comeback and eventual blowout. Even if the Mets fall behind by an early run or two, they are likely to respond properly and pile up the runs before the night is over. Keep this in mind when you make your Nationals Mets pick and size up the Nationals Mets odds.
Final Nationals-Mets Prediction & Pick
The Mets haven't won five in a row yet this season. Hosting the Nats and getting Patrick Corbin should enable them to win a fifth consecutive game.
Final Nationals-Mets Prediction & Pick: Mets -1.5
