The Washington Nationals will try and take the three-game series from the Philadelphia Phillies as the NL East rivals finish the set at Citizens Bank Park. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Nationals-Phillies prediction and pick.
The Nationals defeated the Phillies 3-2 last night. The game was scoreless in the fourth inning when Yadiel Hernandez clubbed an RBI double to give the Nationals a 1-0 lead. Then, Kyle Schwarber approached the plate in the bottom half and clobbered a solo shot to deep right for a home run. The home run was his 24th, tying the score at 1-1. The sixth inning came, and it still was a tie game. Next, Schwarber drilled a solo shot off the Toyota sign in right field for a home run. It was his 25th in 2022, his second of the game, giving the Phillies a 2-1 lead. However, the Nationals struck back with an RBI double by Luis Garcia that drove in two, giving the Nats the lead they would not surrender.
The Nationals will go with Joan Adon on the hill today. Adon is 1-11 with a 6.97 ERA. The Nationals called him back up from Triple-A, hoping he might experience better results. He last appeared on June 17, allowing four earned runs on seven hits through five innings. Adon was horrific in June, going 0-3 with a 10.13 ERA through three starts.
Bailey Falter will take the mound for the Phillies. Falter is 0-2 with a 4.88 ERA. He has not had the best start to his Phillies' career, still looking for that elusive first win. Falter tossed four innings in his last outing, allowing three earned runs on five hits.
The Phillies lead the season series 5-2, with four of the five wins coming on the road. While they have gone 13-2 on the road against the Nationals dating back to the start of last season, they are only 5-6 at home.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Nationals-Phillies odds:
MLB odds: Nationals-Phillies Odds
Nationals: +1.5 (-128)
Phillies: -1.5 (+106)
Over: 9.5 (-105)
Under: 9.5 (-115)
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Why The Nationals Could Cover The Spread
The Nationals do not have many weapons left, but they do have Juan Soto and Josh Bell.
Soto is batting .226 with 15 home runs, 33 RBIs, and 46 runs in 2022. Additionally, he has a .384 on-base percentage with a .449 slugging percentage. It has not been smooth sailing against the Phillies this year. Soto is batting .105 with one home run, three RBIs, and two runs scored through five games against the Phillies. Alternatively, he is batting .293 with 18 home runs, 52 RBIs, and 53 runs through 65 career games against the Phillies.
Bell is batting .315 with 12 home runs, 47 RBIs, and 44 runs scored in 2022. Also, he is batting .300 with four home runs, six RBIs, and five runs scored through six games this season. Bell is batting .251 with 13 home rums, 38 RBIs, and 24 runs scored through 48 career games against the Phillies.
The Nationals need a strong outing from Adon. They must get at least six innings from him. Additionally, they need good performances at the plate from Soto and Bell. These things happening can help them cover the spread.
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Phillies are still chipping away without Bryce Harper. Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins have carried the offense in his stead.
Schwarber is killing the Nationals, with four home runs in two games. Overall, he is batting .33 with four home runs, five RBIs, and 10 runs scored through six games against Washington. Schwarber is batting .226 with 27 home runs, 55 RBIs, and 59 runs scored but has picked things up significantly since May 31. He is batting .262 with 14 home runs, 30 RBIs, and 30 runs in 32 games since the calendar turned into June. Schwarber is looking more like the slugger from last season and is already on pace to shatter his home run marks from 2021 and could topple his 38 mark from 2019.
Hoskins is batting .251 with 17 home runs, 42 RBIs, and 44 runs scored through 81 games. Likewise, he is also performing better since May 31. Hoskins is batting .310 with nine home runs, 18 RBIs, and 20 runs scored in 32 games since May 31. Alternatively, he has not done as well against the Nationals. Hoskins is batting .182 with just one RBI and two runs in six games against the Nationals.
The Phillies will cover the spread if Falter can step up and give his best performance. Also, the Phillies need Schwarber and Hoskins to continue to rake. Schwarber hit two home runs last night and the rest of the lineup did nothing around him. That must change for the Phillies to win.
Final Nationals-Phillies Prediction & Pick
The Nationals have done much better on the road than at home against the Phillies. However, both pitchers are not good. Adon has been terrible, and Falter has not proven he can pitch at a major league level yet. Take the runs.
Final Nationals-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Over: 9.5 (-105)
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