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MLB odds: Nationals vs. Phillies prediction, odds, pick, and more – 7/28/2021

Nationals, Phillies

The Washington Nationals and the Philadelphia Phillies will continue their four-game series on Wednesday night. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Nationals-Phillies prediction and pick.

This has been a hotly contested series so far, with each of the first two games coming down to the wire. The Phillies managed to take game one off of an Andrew McCutchen walk-off home run. The Nationals rebounded quickly to take the second game of the series, holding the Phillies scoreless for the last four innings of the game and securing a win. Philadelphia is fighting for first place in the NL East, trailing the New York Mets by only 3.5 games. The Nationals are all but out of the playoffs already, but they would love to play spoiler to their division rival.

Here’s how the bookmakers have set the lines for Wednesday’s game.

MLB Odds: Nationals-Phillies Odds

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Washington Nationals +1 1/2 (-108)

Philadelphia Phillies -1 1/2 (-112)

Over 8 runs (-118)

Under 8 runs (-102)

Why The Nationals Could Cover The Spread

The Washington lineup is good enough to keep them in games against any opponent. The Nationals’ bats are some of the most underrated in the MLB, but the stats don’t lie. They rank inside the top five in batting average and OBP, while also ranking in the top ten in slugging percentage and OPS. Washington’s hitters are a tough task for any pitcher, even Phillies starter Zach Wheeler.

Wheeler has been fantastic on the season so far, but he’s faced some struggles against the Nationals. The last time he faced Washington, Wheeler only got through three innings while allowing three earned runs. The Nationals have shown they can get to Wheeler, so it’s not out of the question that it happens again.

Washington will entrust pitcher Patrick Corbin with the start in this game. Corbin hasn’t been great this season, but he hasn’t struggled against the Phillies. The left-hander has faced Philadelphia once and pitched seven innings of one-run ball.

Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread

The Washington hitters may have better overall stats than the Phillies’ batters, but Philadelphia’s lineup should be able to pile up the runs in this game. Nationals starter Patrick Corbin has struggled all year, and there are a number of statistics that are against him in this matchup.

Corbin’s season-long stats of a 5.71 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP certainly indicate that Corbin is hittable, but there’s even more reason to believe in the Philadelphia lineup against the lefty. Corbin allows an 8.4% barrel percentage, a fairly poor number. The Phillies have five hitters in their starting lineup that barrel the ball at a rate of 9.3% or more. A 10% barrel percentage is considered very good for a hitter, so these Philadelphia hitters are especially good at barreling up opposing pitchers.

The Phillies are also a better offensive team against left-handed pitching. Their batting average is a mere .234 against righties, but that rises all the way up to .254 against lefties. Philadelphia’s OBP, slugging percentage, and OPS all follow suite and skyrocket against left-handed pitching.

The Phillies also have the privilege of deploying Zach Wheeler for the start. Wheeler has been fantastic all year, owning an ERA of 2.37 and a WHIP of 1.01. Both are truly elite numbers, and he should be able to hold down this strong Washington lineup.

Final Nationals-Phillies Prediction & Pick

Both games in this series have been close so far, but this one shouldn’t be. The Phillies should pile up the runs against Corbin early while Wheeler pitches five or six solid innings. Washington’s lineup is good, but that won’t be enough to keep the Nationals in this game.

FINAL PICK: Philadelphia Phillies -1 1/2 (-112)