The Baltimore Orioles (80-73) travel to take on the Boston Red Sox (72-81) on Tuesday night. Kyle Brandish (4-7) is the projected starter for the Orioles, while righty Michael Wacha (11-1) will take the bump for the Red Sox. First pitch is slated for 7:10 ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with an Orioles-Red Sox prediction and pick.
Kyle Brandish will be the starter for the Orioles tonight. Brandish has had an up-and-down season for Baltimore. In 21 starts Brandish holds a 4.65 ERA to go along with his 4-7 record. He is coming off his best start of the season, though, having gone 8 2/3 innings in a winning effort over the Astros last week. Brandish struck out 10 and allowed just 2 hits in the game. Brandish has struggled this year against Boston, however, going 0-3 with a 5.31 ERA across 4 starts. In his only prior start at Fenway Brandish was rocked for 6 runs in just 1 2/3 innings.
The Red Sox will send their ace Michael Wacha to the mound in tonight's game. Wacha has been a revelation for Boston fans, providing one of the few bright spots out of their pitching rotation. In his first season as a member of the Red Sox, Wacha holds a shining 2.70 ERA to go along with his 11-1 record. Wacha has been just as good against the Orioles this year. In two starts versus Baltimore, Wacha has allowed just 3 runs in 11 2/3 innings of work.
Here are the Orioles-Red Sox MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Orioles-Red Sox Odds
Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-182)
Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+150)
Over: 9 (-104)
Under: 9 (-118)
Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread
The Baltimore Orioles have been one of the surprise teams in baseball this year. Widely picked to finish last in a brutal American League East, Baltimore finds themselves just 3.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners for the final wild-card playoff spot. Baltimore is just 5-5 in their last 10 games but has notably covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games.
Baltimore features a balanced offense to compliment their above-average pitching staff. Offensively, they're led by a talented outfield of Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, and Austin Hays. Mullins paces the team in batting average at .262, while Santander provides the power having hit 31 home runs and contributing 85 RBIs. The Orioles also feature arguably the league's most dangerous duo on the base paths in Jorge Mateo (33 stolen bases) and the aforementioned Mullins (33 stolen bases).
Orioles hitters have seen a great deal of success against the Red Sox this season – something to keep in mind in making an Orioles-Red Sox prediction. Cedric Mullins is hitting .350 against Boston this year, while Santander has compiled 5 homers and 20 RBIs in 16 games. Santander is coming off one of his best games of the year in the opener against Boston last night, going 2-6 with 2 home runs.
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
While the Orioles are surging in hot pursuit of the last AL playoff spot, the Red Sox are headed in the opposite direction. Already eliminated from playoff contention, Boston has fallen off the deep end in recent games. The Red Sox have lost 6 straight games coming into Tuesday night. During the losing streak, Boston has covered the spread just twice.
The Red Sox have struggled compared to preseason expectations despite a potent offense. Boston is 10th in the MLB in runs scored behind star shortstop Xander Bogaerts' stellar year. Bogaerts is in a 3-man race with the Yankees Aaron Judge and Twins Luis Arraez for the AL batting crown. For the season, Bogaerts is hitting .313 with 14 homers and 68 RBIs. He's been especially dangerous both at home (.321 average) and against the Orioles (.333 average), giving the Red Sox some hope their star can snap a 6-game skid.
While Bogaerts is the name to watch thanks to his batting crown race, his partner on the left side of the diamond has been equally impressive against Baltimore this year. Third baseman Rafael Devers is also hitting .333 against the Orioles, compiling 33 total bases in 69 at-bats. Devers has done this against everyone in 2022, holding a .292 average with 27 home runs and 85 RBIs this season. Coming off a 3-hit game, Devers has homered just twice in September – something that can't continue.
Final Orioles-Red Sox Prediction & Pick
This is probably a stay away for casual betters but if you're looking for some value the Red Sox at -1.5 are an enticing bet. Their offense has never been the issue but Boston's pitching is truly horrendous… outside of their ace Michael Wacha… who happens to be pitching tonight. The Red Sox can't lose 6 in a row, right?
Final Orioles-Red Sox Prediction & Pick: Boston. Red Sox -1.5 (+150)
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