MLB odds: Padres vs. Marlins prediction, odds, pick, and more
In the opening match of this series, the Padres earned a 3-2 victory thanks to Blake Snell’s eight strikeouts. However, expect Marlins manager Don Mattingly and his men to bounce back as they look to tie up the series.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Padres-Marlins odds.
MLB Odds: Padres-Marlins Odds
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San Diego Padres -1.5 (+103)
Miami Marlins +1.5 (-123)
Over 8 runs (-110)
Under 8 runs (-110)
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
The Marlins are 51-45 against the run line this season. However, when playing in their home stadium, LoanDepot Park, they cover 54.5% of the time.
Miami plans to give the right-handed rookie Zach Thompson his seventh start of the season. Since his Major League debut on June 7th, Thompson is 2-2 and has an ERA of 1.93. The 27-year-old threw 60 pitches in his last start and allowed only two hits in four innings of shutout baseball.
Brothers don’t shake hands, brothers gotta hug. 💙 pic.twitter.com/AcxhUyMC6v
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) July 22, 2021
The Marlins have been poor at-bat this season. They rank 29th in baseball in runs per game, 25th in home runs per game, and 22nd in batting average.
However, Adam Duvall and Jesus Aguilar have kept the team afloat offensively. Duvall leads the team with 21 home runs, while Aguilar has a team-best of 68 RBIs and 85. Aguilar has also produced his own power from the box with 17 homers.
The Marlins will need their rookie pitcher to continue his impressive start and for their two power hitters to cause havoc offensively to have a chance at leveling up the series.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
The Padres are 50-49 against the run line this season. However, as an away team, that number sees a slight bump, as they cover 53.2% of the time when on the road.
San Diego plans to give Joe Musgrove his 19th start of the season. The right-hander is currently 5-7 and has a 3.14 ERA along with 0.997 WHIP this season. Musgrove struggled in his last start, allowing eight hits and four earned runs in five innings.
Poetry in motion. pic.twitter.com/H8FucWHhL2
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) July 23, 2021
Unlike the Marlins, the Padres are a team to watch offensively. They are second in the National League in batting average at .246. However, hitting is only the start of the Padres offense. They lead the MLB with 90 stolen bases. For greater context of how impressive that number is, the second-best team has 67.
Individually, all eyes are always on Fernado Tatis Jr. The 22-year-old has put himself in MVP contention this season with 29 home runs and a batting average of .291.
If the Padres are to come away with their third consecutive road win, they will need to continue to run the bases well and for Musgrove to be efficient.
Final Padres-Marlins Prediction & Pick
With the Padres going 1-3 in Musgrove’s last four starts and the Marlins having a confident young pitcher on the mound, Miami has the potential for an upset. However, with the star power of San Diego, it is hard to pick against them.
For those reasons, we will pass on the moneyline but take the Marlins to cover for the second night in a row.
FINAL PICK: Miami Marlins -1.5 (-123)