The San Diego Padres will travel to The Show-Me State to battle it out against the St. Louis Cardinals in the first game of their three-game series. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Padres-Cardinals prediction and pick.
This series has extreme playoff implications. The Cardinals currently lead the Padres by just a half-game for the final National League Wild Card spot.
St Louis. is currently on a five-game winning streak and is second place in the National League Centrals with a 76-69 record. Meanwhile, the Padres recently recovered from a five-game skid after closing out their series against the San Francisco Giants with back-to-back wins. Those wins moved them to 76-70 on the year where they currently sit in third place of the National League West.
Here’s how the sportsbooks have set the Padres-Cardinals Odds.
MLB Odds: Padres-Cardinals Odds
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San Diego Padres +1.5 (-156)
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+136)
Over 9 runs (-102)
Under 9 runs (-118)
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
The Padres are 69-77 against the run line this season. However, when the bookmakers view them as an away underdog, they cover 63.6% of the time.
San Diego plans to start their newest signing, Vince Velasquez, on the mound. Velasquez was just signed by the Padres earlier this week to a minor league contract to replace Blake Snell, who recently suffered a groin strain and was put on the 10-day injured list.
Velasquez was previously pitching for the Philadelphia Phillies this season, where he went 3-6 in 17 starts and had an ERA of 5.95. This will be the right-hander's first game since July 30th, as he was dealing with a blister injury.
Getting back to the Padre way. #PadresWin pic.twitter.com/VMferpiXhR
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) September 16, 2021
Offensively, the Padres average 4.54 runs per game and have a mediocre batting average of .241. However, in the Padres' last two games, they scored a combined 16 runs and tallied a total of 30 hits.
Individually, Fernando Tatis Jr. has been dominant for the Padres this season. He has the heaviest bat with a team-best 39 home runs (fourth in the MLB) and is the betting favorite to win the National League MVP at just 22-years-old. However, the most consistent at-bat for San Diego is Manny Machado. He leads the team with 141 hits and 93 RBIs.
Why The Cardinals Could Cover The Spread
The Cardinals are 75-70 against the run line this season. However, as a home favorite, Mike Shildt and his men cover just 40% of the time.
St. Louis is expected to give one-time All-Star Mile Mikolas his sixth start of the season. The right-hander is 0-2 the year and has a 5.47 ERA. In his last start, he gave up four earned runs and allowed two homers in five innings pitched.
Goldenado gone! pic.twitter.com/wOKABYV3A8
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) September 16, 2021
Offensively, the Cardinals are one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league averaging 4.20 runs per game. However, during their current five-game winning streak, the Cardinals are averaging 6.6 runs per game and have a .302 batting average.
Individually, Nolan Arenado has the most power on the team with 32 home runs, but Paul Goldsmith is the key at-bat for the Cardinals. Goldsmith has a team-high .289 batting average and a .495 Slugging percentage. He is currently seventh in the MLB with 158 hits.
Final Padres-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
The Cardinals are in a groove right now and will be up against a pitcher that was just cut from his old team and signed by the Padres due to an injury. Many pitchers often get rejuvenated after switching teams, but Velasquez hasn't pitched in over a month and has poor statistics when pitching on the road. Velasquez has a 7.05 ERA, and .265 OBA in his last nine road starts.
For those reasons, I am looking to fade the Padres in the first half of the game and expect them to improve as they go deeper into their bullpen.
FINAL PADRES-CARDINALS PREDICTION & PICK: Cardinals -0.5 first five innings (+105)
Player Prop: Vince Velasquez Under 4.5 Strikeout (-155 at Draftkings)
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