Sunday, the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers play the series finale of what has been an electric four-game series. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Padres-Dodgers prediction and pick.
Los Angeles is off to the best start in baseball, currently standing at 15-6. If you put $100 on every single Dodgers game so far, you'd be up $220 on the moneyline so far.
San Diego isn't too far behind, standing at 12-11 and in third place in the NL West. If you put $100 on every single Padres game so far, you'd be down $202 on the moneyline so far.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Padres-Dodgers odds.
MLB Odds: Padres-Dodgers Odds
San Diego Padres ML (+109)
Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-119)
Over 7.5 Runs (+106)
Under 7.5 Runs (-126)
Why The Dodgers Could Win This Game
The Dodgers are off to a dominant start. The boys in blue have been mowing down opponents with relative ease en route to the best record in the league, though they have been a bit sluggish over the last week.
Los Angeles' loaded lineup and rotation makes it hard to bet against them. They haven't been an underdog for a single game this season.
Sunday, they send Dustin May to the mound in hopes of continuing their dominance.
May is familiar with this Padres team. The flame-throwing righty has started four games against San Diego and made three relief appearances against them.
Over these seven appearances, May has amassed a respectable 2.97 ERA, with 25 strikeouts. Perhaps most importantly right now, he has held Fernando Tatis Jr. to just a single hit in 12 plate appearances.
The Dodgers' offense had a big performance on Saturday by getting 12 hits and five runs, the most hits and runs they've recorded in over a week.
Justin Turner has been the early leader of the deep lineup. The third baseman is batting a ridiculous .356 to go along with five HR and 17 RBI.
Los Angeles gets a crack at Joe Musgrove, who they've fared well against historically. Musgrove holds a career 5.04 ERA against the Dodgers with an 0-3 record.
Musgrove has improved this season, but current Dodgers have combined to bat 11-for-34 off him.
Why The Padres Could Win This Game
Despite Dustin May's solid numbers against San Diego, the Dodgers do not usually win when he starts against the Padres. L.A. is only 1-3 in May's starts in this matchup.
Additionally, there are several Padres in the lineup who have seen May well. Eric Hosmer, Jake Cronenworth, and Manny Machado have combined to hit 10-for-29 off May, which is just under .300.
The one Padre who struggles against May is the hottest in the lineup. Tatis might not have great numbers against May, but he has four homers in his last two games. All four came against bona fide aces in Trevor Bauer and Clayton Kershaw, so we could see Tatis break the trend he set previously by getting a couple hits off May.
San Diego sends Musgrove to the mound, a guy who has been their best pitcher in their rotation among names like Yu Darvish and Blake Snell.
Musgrove has given the Padres three amazing starts in his four games, including the first no-hitter in franchise history. The former Pirate is coming off a 13-strikeout game against the Milwaukee Brewers in his last outing.
Against a Dodgers offense that has struggled to score of late, Musgrove has a shot to pitch another solid game. In their last three games against right-handed starters, the Dodgers have only scored a measly eight runs.
The best path to victory for the Padres is to have Musgrove grind through six or seven innings of work and hand the ball to a bullpen that has been dominant with the fourth-lowest ERA in the league.
Final Padres-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
The pitching matchup might be a wash, considering Musgrove has atrocious numbers against the Dodgers despite his excellent run to start the season. Offensively, the Dodgers have a slight advantage with a lineup that has no holes at the moment. This is the lowest price you'll be able to get the Dodgers at for quite some time considering their upcoming schedule, and I'd recommend jumping on it.
FINAL PADRES-DODGERS PREDICTION: LOS ANGELES DODGERS ML (-119)