The Philadelphia Phillies are coming off a huge series victory against the San Diego Padres, one of the best teams in the league. The Phillies won't get any rest, as they will start a four-game series against the Chicago Cubs on Monday night. The Cubs were just swept by the Cincinnati Reds to make it nine losses in a row, so they desperately need to win some games in order to keep the NL Central competitive. This series is sure to be an interesting one, so it's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Phillies-Cubs prediction and pick.
Here are the lines for Monday's series opener.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Cubs Odds
Philadelphia Phillies ML (+130)
Chicago Cubs ML (-141)
Over 11 runs (-120)
Under 11 runs (+100)
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
Momentum helps in all sports, and the Phillies certainly have the momentum going their way in this one. The Cubs have lost their last nine games, with some of those games being blowouts. The Chicago offense also looked completely asleep during that stretch, scoring more than two runs just twice in that span. Running into the Cubs' bats is not an intimidating prospect.
The Philadelphia offense has been solid lately, and I doubt Chicago starter Zach Davies will be able to slow them down. Davies isn't bad, but he isn't exactly a shutdown pitcher. He owns a 4.32 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP on the season. He has some very exploitable flaws that the Phillies should be excited to attack. He struggles with his control, walking multiple batters in almost every single start he has made this year. Davies also rarely works deep into games, meaning that a Chicago bullpen that has looked hittable recently will have to pitch some meaningful innings.
Another factor helping the Phillies is the fact that their hitters have been mainly successful when facing Davies. Of the nine potential starters in the lineup, five of them own a batting average of .250 or above against Chicago's starter.
Why The Cubs Could Cover The Spread
While the Cubs have been terrible offensively as of late, Monday's game is a huge opportunity to turn that around. The Phillies are trusting pitcher Matt Moore with the start, which opens the door for Chicago's offense.
Moore has been utilized as both a reliever and starter this season. He has been a pretty solid reliever for the Phillies, but his starts have been disastrous. Moore has pitched 16 innings as a starter, giving up 11 runs in those appearances. His WHIP is also around 2.00 in those starts. If Chicago can't hit Moore, they probably can't hit anyone.
Moore doesn't pitch deep into games, making this showdown a perfect opportunity for an offensive breakout. The Philadelphia bullpen has been shaky at best this season, and they'll have to pitch a majority of this game. Even the Cubs should be able to put up a couple of runs on them.
While Davies hasn't been the most impressive pitcher in the league, he can definitely hold his own. It helps that the Phillies are a worse offensive team when playing on the road, sporting worse offensive statistics across the board away from Citizens Bank Park. They also struggle against right-handed pitching, as their team batting average drops from .252 against lefties to .228 against righties.
Final Phillies-Cubs Prediction & Pick
I think the Phillies have a decent chance of pulling off an upset here, but that's not the best pick available. The under should hit barring an absolute meltdown from the Philadelphia pitching, which I don't think is in the cards. The under should cash comfortably.
FINAL PICK: Under 11 runs (-120)