Not many viewed Texas as a March Madness team at the beginning of the 2025-2026 college basketball season, but timely victories in key moments have it on the NCAA Tournament bubble at the end of February. At the end of an up-and-down season, the Longhorns' tournament hopes might hinge on their performance in the SEC Tournament.
Texas failing to make the 68-team tournament one year after firing Rodney Terry would be nothing short of ironic. The Longhorns replaced Terry with Sean Miller after the former's inability to win in March, yet they now find themselves in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament altogether for the first time since 2020.
Miller appeared to be entirely out of the conversation in January after getting out to a 2-4 start in conference play. However, Texas took advantage of a soft spot in its schedule to construct a five-game win streak to get its season back on track.
Texas is still in the conversation, but consecutive losses to Georgia and Florida leave it with an 18-11 record entering March. The Longhorns are 9-7 in SEC play, good for ninth in the conference.
Texas' record is unappealing, but its respectable 5-8 mark against Quad 1 opponents bolsters its March Madness resume. The Longhorns just have to hope that the selection committee respects the SEC's strength of schedule enough to give the conference at least nine NCAA Tournament bids.
Although Texas is turning it on at the right time, Miller will need more out of his team to construct another March Madness run. The Longhorns will only find themselves in difficult matchups the rest of the way.
Texas' current March Madness odds
Texas' win over Texas A&M lifted its March Madness hopes, but the Longhorns still need a prayer, with the odds suggesting that Miller will miss the Big Dance in his first year in Austin.
Texas has a 62.1 percent chance of making the NCAA Tournament, per TeamRankings, which gives it a 1.6 percent chance of earning an automatic bid by winning the SEC Tournament and a 0.7 percent chance of reaching the Final Four. The analytical site projects the Longhorns will be a No. 11 seed in March.
Texas is projected one seed higher by ESPN college basketball analyst Joe Lunardi, who has the Longhorns as a No. 10 seed. Lunardi lists Miller's team as one of his “last four byes” teams, along with Georgia, Missouri and Texas A&M.
The Longhorns do not have odds listed by any sportsbook to make the 68-team NCAA Tournament bracket.
Path to the Big Dance
Texas has one path back to March Madness, and it requires it to impress in the 2026 SEC Tournament. The Longhorns are likely to end the regular season with fewer than 20 wins, forcing them to show out in Nashville if they want a postseason bid.
Following its win over Texas A&M, Texas hits the road to face No. 20 Arkansas, its final ranked opponent of the regular season. While the matchup presents them with one final Quad 1 opportunity, the Razorbacks have lost just once at home.
Texas' final game of the 2025-2026 college basketball regular season at home against Oklahoma on March 7. Win or lose against Arkansas, the Longhorns have to beat the struggling Sooners if they want to keep any remaining tournament hopes alive.
Oklahoma enters March on a two-game win streak, but it is still just 5-11 in the SEC and 4-11 in its last 15 games. While the Sooners are no pushovers, another loss to an unranked foe would effectively close the door on Texas' March Madness aspirations.
But even with a 3-0 end to the regular season, Texas cannot feel safe on Selection Sunday without another marquee victory in the SEC Tournament. The ninth-place Longhorns are trending toward beginning the tournament on Day One and will likely need to survive until at least Day Three. Without it, the best Miller can hope for is a First Four matchup.
