The New York Mets are set to host the Philadelphia Phillies today in the first matchup of a three-game set at Citi Field. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Phillies-Mets prediction and pick we have laid out below.
New York is on pace for its highest winning percentage since 1988 and third-highest of all-time, with the only two seasons ranking above the current one resulting in a World Series championship and seven-game loss in the NLCS. The Mets hold a seven-game lead in the National League East at 73-39, with wins in eight of their last 10 games. The Phillies sit 10 1/2 games back of them at 62-49, but they've also won eight of their last 10 contests, and are currently in line to secure a wild card spot at 62-49.
This will mark the first meeting between the teams since the All-Star break, with New York leading the season series 9-3.
Here are the Phillies-Mets MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Mets Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-118)
New York Mets: -1.5 (-102)
Over: 7 (-104)
Under: 7 (-118)
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
Few National League pitchers can compare to the Mets' Max Scherzer this season, but there is a reason for Philadelphia backers to feel confident in 26-year-old left-hander Ranger Suárez. The Venezuela native has a 3.68 ERA for the season and has been playing his best baseball of the year as of late, posting a 2.63 ERA with a 4-1 record over his last seven starts. Suárez was nothing short of dominant in July, allowing zero earned runs with 16 strikeouts and a .190 opponent's batting average in 16 innings across three starts. The Mets have also had some issues against left-handed pitching, at least in comparison to their impressive overall numbers at the plate. New York is 14th in OPS and batting average, 16th in slugging percentage, and 20th in strikeouts against lefties this season.
Philadelphia has also been a force to be reckoned with at the plate since the All-Star break, ranking sixth in the MLB in OPS, slugging percentage, and batting average, while sitting in the top 10 in runs scored, home runs, triples, and strikeouts. Third baseman Alec Bohm has helped lead the charge in this department, ranking 6th in all of baseball with a .366 batting average and 21st with a .909 OPS over the last 30 days.
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
Anytime Scherzer takes the mound, it's easy to make a case for backing the Mets — especially on first five innings bets. He has the eighth-lowest Cy Young Award odds on FanDuel at 40-to-1 and is on pace to post the lowest ERA of his prolific career. Scherzer has an 8-2 record and 1.98 ERA on the season, with a 1.37 ERA and 3-1 mark over his last seven starts. The Mets also hold an advantage in the relief pitching department, with their 3.57 bullpen ERA sitting 38 points lower than their opponent.
Even if left-handed pitching has given New York some problems in 2022, the Mets remain one of the most productive offenses in all of baseball. They rank among the top five in the MLB in OPS, on-base percentage, batting average, runs scored, strikeouts, and triples, among other categories, and have maintained this pace for the most part since the All-Star break.
Shortstop Francisco Lindor has been on an absolute tear at the plate over the last month, with his .376 batting average and .471 on-base percentage ranking third in the MLB, while ranking fourth in OPS and second in runs scored. First baseman Pete Alonso has also impressed during this stretch, ranking fourth in OPS and slugging percentage and second in runs batted in.
Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick
For as unstoppable as Scherzer has been at times this year, he hasn't been as dominant against his upcoming opponent. In three starts against the Phillies, this season, the three-time Cy Young Award winner and eight-time All-Star have allowed a total of eight earned runs and 20 hits in 17 innings. New York will have the home-field advantage and is 38-18 at Citi Field this season. However, the Phillies have been among the best teams in the MLB at finding success away from home this year. Philadelphia's 30-23 record on the road is the fourth-best in baseball, with its +0.6 average run differential in these games ranking sixth.
Given the talent that both starting pitchers bring to the table, taking the under on the first five innings run a total of 3 1/2 runs is an intriguing play at -120. As for a full-game bet, the Mets have clearly been the better team in 2022. However, given the success the Phillies have had against Scherzer this year, as well as their recent offensive production, taking them on the run line seems to have some value here.
Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick: Phillies: +1.5 (-118)
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