The Philadelphia Phillies will attempt to win the four-game series as they face the San Diego Padres in the finale at Petco Park on Sunday. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Phillies-Padres prediction and pick.
The Phillies defeated the Padres 4-2 on Saturday. It was scoreless going into the fifth inning when J.T. Realmuto approached the plate. Then, he crushed a solo shot to deep left. It was his 5th in 2022, giving the Phillies a 1-0 lead. The Padres trailed 3-0 in the bottom half of the inning when Jorge Alfaro clipped an RBI double to deep-center to cut the deficit to 3-2. However, it was all the Padres could muster as they fell short.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Phillies-Padres odds:
MLB odds: Phillies-Padres Odds
Phillies: +1.5 (-170)
Padres: -1.5 (+140)
Over: 7.5 (-110)
Under: 7.5 (-110)
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Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Phillies are 4-2 on the road against the Padres since 2020. They are looking to win their third straight road series against the Padres. Petco Park has been kind to the Phillies recently, and they look to keep the trend going.
Philadelphia will roll with Kyle Gibson on the hill. Gibson is 4-3 with a 4.06 ERA. He went 6 1/3 innings in his last start, allowing three earned runs on seven hits with four strikeouts. Gibson has hit six innings or more in three straight starts. Additionally, he has accomplished the feat in four of five starts. Gibson faced the Padres on May 19. He allowed two earned runs on eight hits with seven strikeouts through 5 2/3 innings. Gibson is 2-1 with a 2.92 ERA in four career appearances against the Padres. However, he has struggled on the road, going 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in six starts away from home.
The Phillies have three significant sluggers that can help them cover the odds. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Rhys Hoskins are the best sluggers the team has. However, Harper has struggled in this series, hitting .111 with just one run scored. Alternatively, he is batting .300 with 12 home runs, 39 RBIs, and 32 runs scored through 45 career games against the Padres. These stats showcase what he can do against San Diego pitching.
Schwarber is batting .227 with one home run, three RBIs, and two runs scored in six games against the Padres in 2022. Likewise, he is batting .224 with five home runs, eight RBIs, and 10 runs scored in 24 career games against the Padres. Schwarber is the definition of ‘boom-or-bust' as he will hit a home run or will whiff completely. Hoskins is batting .200 with one home run, one RBI, and two runs scored in six games against the Padres in 2022. Also, he is batting .214 with nine home runs, 14 RBIs, and 15 runs scored in 25 lifetime games against the Padres.
The Phillies will cover the spread if Harper, Schwarber, and Hoskins can produce in the lineup to support Gibson. Additionally, Gibson must pitch efficiently, continuing his run of recent success. The Phillies do not want this game to be close, turning it over to an unreliable bullpen that ranks 19th in team ERA.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
The Padres are 3-3 against the Phillies this year, but only 1-2 at home. Likewise, San Diego is 21-15 at home compared to 24-14 on the road. The Padres must play better in front of their fans at Petco Park. They have the pitcher for the occasion.
Yu Darvish is 7-3 with a 3.17 ERA. Darvish went seven innings in his last outing, allowing one earned run on four hits with five strikeouts. Likewise, he has gone seven or more innings in four consecutive starts. Additionally, he has lasted seven innings or more in five of six starts. Darvish has struck out 18 batters through three games. He faced the Phillies on May 19, where he tossed seven scoreless innings, allowing six scattered hits. Darvish is 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA in six starts in his career against the Phillies. He has enjoyed pitching at Petco Park in 2022. Darvish is 4-1 with a 1.34 ERA in six starts in front of the San Diego faithful.
Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis are out of the lineup, so the Padres will rely on Jake Cronenworth and Eric Hosmer. Cronenworth is struggling against the Phillies, as he is batting .133 through four games against Philadelphia. Likewise, he is batting .179 with one home run and two RBIs through 10 games against the Phillies. Hosmer has not done better, hitting .217 with one home run, one RBI, and two runs scored through six games against the Phillies in 2022. Additionally, he is batting .274 with two home runs, 12 RBIs, and 15 runs scored through 30 career games against the Phillies.
The Padres will cover the spread if Darvish continues to confuse hitters. Cronenworth and Hosmer must produce to give the Padres a fighting chance.
Final Phillies-Padres Prediction & Pick
Gibson is streaky, and Darvish is amazing. However, the Padres still do not have their big bats and that cancels everything out. Expect a lower-scoring game.
Final Phillies-Padres Prediction & Pick: Under: 7.5 (-110)
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