The Pittsburgh Pirates take on the Atlanta Braves. Check out our MLB odds series for our Pirates Braves prediction and pick.
J.T. Brubaker goes to the hill for the Pirates, while Max Fried takes the bump for the Braves.
J.T. Brubaker has a 4.70 ERA. He has had four segments in his season thus far for the Buccos. In his first three starts, he pitched 12 1/3 innings and gave up 12 runs. In his next four starts, he pitched 18 innings and gave up nine runs, which is nothing spectacular but represented a significant improvement from his first three starts. The third “segment” of his season — his last four starts — has been a portrait of inconsistency: six runs allowed in two of the starts, one run allowed in the other two. In his most recent start against the Diamondbacks on June 3, he was roughed up for six runs. In his previous start on May 28 against the Padres, he allowed just one run in five innings. Brubaker is not an easy pitcher to predict when making a Pirates Braves prediction based on the current MLB odds.
Max Fried has a 2.75 ERA. His ERA was 5.73 after his first two starts of the year, but he has steadily reduced that mark since then. In his last nine starts, he hasn't allowed more than four runs in any outing. He has allowed more than two runs only twice. He has steadily gotten better as the season has moved along. He looks more like the pitcher who helped the Braves in their run to the World Series last year. This is an obvious part of the calculus when making a Pirates Braves pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Pirates-Braves MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Pirates-Braves Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (+115)
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (-138)
Over: 8.5 (-120)
Under: 8.5 (-102)
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Why The Pirates Could Cover the Spread
The Pirates have been a weird team in recent weeks. They played the Padres and Dodgers well in a Southern California road trip on which they went 4-2. They nearly won the series against the Padres but lost on a walk-off homer after tying the game in the late innings. They then swept the Dodgers in Dodger Stadium moving to 5-1 against Los Angeles for the season. The Pirates looked like the elite team, and the Dodgers looked like a below-.500 ballclub, when Pittsburgh handled L.A. over the course of three games.
So why are the Pirates not a better team? Well, they just got swept at home by the light-hitting Detroit Tigers. Clearly, the Bucs played some games with great intensity but have a hard time bringing that passion to the ballpark every day. Yet, with the World Series champions on the field, the Pirates figure to raise their game. They showed against the Dodgers that they can take down the big boys.
Why The Braves Could Cover the Spread
After beating up the Dodgers, the Pirates were tamed by the Detroit Tigers. They're inconsistent and not worthy of trust. Meanwhile, the Braves have won seven games in a row and are hosting the travel-weary Pirates with Max Fried on the mound. This game is set up for the Braves to win.
Final Pirates-Braves Prediction & Pick
The Pirates have this habit of showing up against the good teams, but Max Fried should be able to handcuff them and win this game for the Braves.
Final Pirates-Braves Prediction & Pick: Braves -1.5
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