The Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers will begin another three-game series on Monday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Pirates-Brewers prediction and pick.
These two NL Central rivals played a three-game set less than a week ago. The Brewers managed to pull off the sweep, further securing their lead in the division. Milwaukee has one of the biggest division leads in the majors, with the second-place Cincinnati Reds trailing them by seven games. The Pirates, on the other hand, are sitting in the NL Central cellar. Their primary focus is player development right now, but they would love to pull off a few upsets along the way.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Monday night's series opener.
MLB Odds: Pirates-Brewers Odds
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Pittsburgh Pirates +1 1/2 (+100)
Milwaukee Brewers -1 1/2 (-120)
Over 9 runs (-110)
Under 9 runs (-110)
Why The Pirates Could Cover The Spread
Pittsburgh will count on pitcher Bryse Wilson in this contest. Wilson has only made seven appearances for the Pirates this season, but he has shown some promise in those starts. He owns a 4.83 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP on the year, but those numbers are inflated due to the fact that Wilson has only made seven starts. Wilson is a a bit of a wild card at this point, but there are some stats going his way in this matchup.
The Brewers struggle to hit right-handed pitching. Milwaukee's hitters own a .235 batting average against lefties, but that falls to .225 whenever they face a righty. The Brewers also see their OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage all fall against right-handed pitching. Surprisingly enough, Milwaukee is also a worse offensive team whenever playing at home. They experience a dip in all of their offensive stats whenever they play in American Family Field. Wilson is an unknown, but these stats should help him put together a solid performance.
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
Despite plenty of stats favoring Wilson, the Brewers should be able to put up some runs on him. Milwaukee has been hot on offense lately, scoring more than four runs in six of the last nine contests. The Brewers put up a combined 28 runs over three games the last time these two teams played a series, so they're clearly capable of putting up runs against Pittsburgh. It's hard to see the inexperienced Wilson slowing these bats down.
Milwaukee also has the pitching advantage in this game. Lefty Eric Lauer is set to make the start for the Brew Crew. Lauer has been solid all season, pitching to the tune of a 3.78 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. His last seven starts have been even better, as he posted a 2.97 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over that span. Lauer has also faced the Pirates once this season, pitching six innings of one-run ball in that appearance. Lauer shouldn't have any trouble continuing his hot streak against one of the worst offenses in all of baseball.
It helps that the Pirates' offense gets even worse whenever they have to face left-handed pitching. Pittsburgh's batting average, OPS, OBP, and slugging percentage all fall against southpaws. It's extremely unlikely that Lauer has any troube against this Pirates lineup.
Final Pirates-Brewers Prediction & Pick
The Brewers are the easy pick in this one. The last time these teams played a series, Milwaukee won every game by four runs or more. The Brewers have only gotten better since then, adding offensive pieces at the trade deadline. Milwaukee also has the clear pitching advantage in this one, so there's no reason to doubt this bet on the Brewers.
FINAL PICK: Milwaukee Brewer -1 1/2 (-120)
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