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MLB Odds: Twins vs. Guardians prediction, odds and pick – 6/30/2022

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Twins, Guardians, MLB

The Minnesota Twins will attempt to win the series on the road as they finish a five-game set with the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday. It’s time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Twins-Guardians prediction and pick.

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The Guardians rallied with a big 10th inning to defeat the Twins 7-6 on Thursday. The Twins trailed 3-0 in the sixth inning when Alex Kirillof blasted a 2-2 pitch to deep center for a two-run home run. It was his first in 2022 and cut the deficit to 3-2. Next, Gio Urshella took an inside 0-2 pitch and cracked a solo shot down the line in left for a home run. It was back-to-back home runs, and Urshella’s 10th, to tie the game at 3-3.

The game went into extra innings and Carlos Correa delivered an RBI single to give the Twins the lead. Then, Max Kepler soared a 390-foot shot to deep right for a home run to add insurance. It was his eighth of 2022, giving the Twins a 6-3 lead heading into the bottom half. Next, the Guardians began their comeback. Amed Rosario clipped an RBI double to cut the deficit to 6-4, then scored on a passed ball to trim the lead to 6-5. Then, Josh Naylor came to the plate with a runner on. Naylor cracked an opposite-field shot to left field for the walk-off home run, giving the Guardians the 7-6 win.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Twins-Guardians odds:

MLB odds: Twins-Guardians Odds

Twins: +1.5 (-162)

Guardians: -1.5 (+134)

Over: 1.5 (-115)

Under: 1.5 (-105)

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Why The Twins Could Cover The Spread

The Twins will go with Chris Archer on the mound. Archer is 2-3 with a 3.14 ERA. He tossed five innings in his last start, not allowing a run on one hit with five strikeouts. Archer has not thrown over five innings once this season. However, his previous performance helped lower his ERA from 3.44 to 3.14. Consequently, he has allowed four earned runs in five starts, yet none in two of his past three. Archer has not faced the Guardians in 2022 but is 0-7 with a 5.87 ERA in seven starts.

Urshella is crushing the Guardians in 2022, batting .333 with four home runs, nine RBIs, and nine runs scored through 10 games. Likewise, he has done well throughout his career against Cleveland, hitting .286 with six home runs, 16 RBIs, and 13 runs scored through 16 games. Urshella is batting .188 with two home runs, six RBIs, and five runs scored through 10 road games, so the home run yesterday was a rarity.

Luis Arraez is batting .200 with one home run, five RBIs, and four runs scored through 10 games against the Guardians in 2022. He is batting .256 with one home run, 18 RBIs, and 17 runs scored through 47 career games against the Guardians. Additionally, he is batting .250 with five RBIs and eight runs through 22 games at Progressive Field.

The Twins need a good performance from Archer to cover the spread. Likewise, they need solid performances from Urshella and Arraez to ensure the Twins cover the points. Minnesota faces a great pitcher today.

Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread

The Guardians will go with Shane Bieber on the hill. Bieber is 3-4 with a 3.07 ERA. He tossed seven innings in his last start, allowing three earned runs on six hits. The one prevailing theme for Bieber has been home runs. Likewise, he has allowed one home run in each of the last three starts. Bieber has pitched well enough but has not won since June 3. His run support is not great. Bieber is 1-0 against the Twins in 2022, going six innings, allowing one earned run on seven hits with seven strikeouts. He is 5-1 with a 3.46 ERA in 13 lifetime starts against the Twins. Also, he is 3-0 with a 3.75 ERA in six home starts against the Twins. 

Naylor now has a .238 batting average with two home runs, six RBIs, and three runs scored through five games against the Twins in 2022. It brings his batting average to .222 over his career against the Twins, and he now has three home runs and seven RBIs against them. It was the first home run he ever hit against the Twins at Progressive Field. 

The Guardians will cover the spread if Bieber can give them an excellent performance. He must shut down the Twins’ offense and not allow them any hope. Additionally, Naylor and the Guardians’ offense must pick Bieber up and give him the run support he craves. 

Final Twins-Guardians Prediction & Pick

The Guardians have not covered in one game yet. However, it is difficult to ignore the Archer and Bieber historical marks. Expect the Guardians to keep the Twins’ offense contained in this one, and muster five runs. It will be enough to cover the spread. 

Final Twins-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Guardians: -1.5 (+134)