The Minnesota Twins take on the Chicago White Sox. Check out our MLB odds series for our Twins White Sox prediction and pick.
Dylan Bundy goes to the hill for the Twins, while Johnny Cueto gets the assignment for the White Sox.
Dylan Bundy has a 4.71 ERA, but whereas some pitchers with bloated ERAs are consistently mediocre, Bundy offers a different profile. He has made 13 starts this season. In seven of them, he has allowed no more than one run. However, when Bundy is bad, he is absolutely atrocious and falls completely off the cliff. He has allowed six or more runs in three starts this season, which caused his ERA to skyrocket. Bundy is a human roller-coaster, and his last six starts tell the tale.
In three starts from May 30 through June 9, Bundy gave up 14 runs in 12 1/3 innings. In his next three starts from June 18-29, he has allowed just four earned runs in 19 innings. Bundy is a good pitcher on some days and a bad pitcher on others, with very little in between. It is not easy to predict which version will show up.
Johnny Cueto has a 3.33 ERA. He has given up precisely three runs in five of his last six starts, and he has pitched at least six innings in seven of his nine starts this season. You know what you're going to get from him, by and large.
Six innings with three earned runs allowed is a 4.50 ERA, however, so why is Cueto's ERA 1.17 runs lower than 4.50? Simple: He threw seven scoreless innings in one of his six June starts (the one start from the month in which he did not allow three runs), and he threw two other scoreless outings in May. Generally, though, he has been a six-inning, three-run pitcher. He has been steadier than Bundy, but Bundy has made more starts and has logged more strong performances.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Twins-White Sox MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Twins-White Sox Odds
Minnesota Twins: +1.5 (-176)
Chicago White Sox: -1.5 (+146)
Over: 9.5 (+100)
Under: 9.5 (-122)
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Why The Twins Could Cover the Spread
The good version of Dylan Bundy will win this game. Bundy can flummox opposing hitters, and the White Sox have had a very disappointing season at the plate. The Twins' starting pitching has been consistently good this season. Minnesota should feel confident about this matchup, and optimistic that it can get the upper hand against a White Sox team which is still looking for its first really big winning streak of the season.
Why The White Sox Could Cover the Spread
After sweeping the Giants in San Francisco over the weekend, the Sox are just one game under .500. They are in the hunt for both the wild card and the American League Central Division. They are getting healthier, with Adam Engel being called back up to the roster after a recent injury, and Yoan Moncada back in the batting order. They know the Twins are the target in their division. This is easily the biggest series of the year to date for the White Sox, and they're at home. They know that when Dylan Bundy is not on top of his game, he crumbles. There is every reason to think Chicago can begin to generate real momentum for its season and use this week as the coming-out party.
Also: The Twins' bullpen has been poor this season. Factor that into your prediction.
Final Twins-White Sox Prediction & Pick
Dylan Bundy games are not good games to bet on. You should stay away from this one. If you insist on making a pick, go with the White Sox.
Final Twins-White Sox Prediction & Pick: White Sox -1.5