The UFC is back in action from the Lone Star State for another exciting Fight Night card, this next Prelim bout taking place in the Welterweight (170) Division. Florida's Phil Rowe will take on Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani of California in a competitive scrap to help introduce the card. Check our UFC odds series for the Rowe-Lebosnoyani prediction and pick.
Phil Rowe (11-6) has gone an even 4-4 since joining the UFC in 2021. After winning three-straight fights, he's taken a step back with a 1-3 record over his last four. He comes in the underdog hoping to get back on track for the first time in the new year. Rowe stands 6-foot-3 with an 80.5-inch reach.
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (9-2) will make his UFC debut following a successful knockout win on Dana White's Contender Series. Originally scheduled to fight Austin Vanderford, he pivots opponents looking for his fifth-straight win. Lebosnoyani stands 5-foot-11 with a 72-inch reach.
UFC Houston Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Houston Odds: Phil Rowe-Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani Odds
Phil Rowe: +164
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani: -198
Over 2.5 rounds: +114
Under 2.5 rounds: -145
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Why Phil Rowe Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Seok Hyeon Ko – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Phil Rowe steps into this spot to replace Austin Vanderford on about three week notice, something Rowe has done in the past while trying to remain as active as possible. He likely jumped on the idea of facing a debuting prospect, especially when realizing the 8.5-inch reach advantage he'll be fighting with. Rowe has been somewhat inconsistent during this recent stretch of fights, but he's hoping an accelerated training camp could get him ready for this challenge.
Row is landing 3.5 significant strikes per minute at 50%, so he's more content with dragging this fight out and scoring his points where he can. His defense is a solid 51%, but his last performance against Seok Hyeon Ko was arguably the worst of his career, getting out-struck 124-11 throughout three rounds. As long as he's not rushing into action and looking to prove a point following the disappointing showing, Rowe will have to remain diligent in not falling behind once again.
Rowe should look to find his striking rhythm right away as he'll have the initial distance control with his reach. He's very active with his long leg kicks up the middle, so expect him to make quick use of those in creating separation. If Rowe falls behind once again, it'll be increasingly difficult for him to make up ground against an active opponent like Lebosnoyani.
Why Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Jack Congdon – KO (head kick, right hook, R1)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 5 SUB
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani immediately inserted himself on the UFC's radar with exactly what Dana White is looking for through his Contender Series auditions. Lebosnoyani closed the distance quickly and immediately forced his opponent into a scrap, landing a blistering head kick following by a clean right hook to finish his opponent. It was certainly the debut showing and he comes into this bout the betting favorite, a high benchmark to live up to in his first fight.
Lebosnoyani posted a 7-1 record while fighting under the LFA promotion, notching five of those wins by way of submission. His DWCS audition was a whole new wrinkle added to his striking game, so expect him to favor the kickboxing early on into this fight. It's worth noting that Phil Rowe has never lost by way of submission and had four wins by the method under his own belt.
Still, the aggression from Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani will serve him best during this fight as his opponent has started slow in the past. If he's able to immediately force Rowe into a chaotic scrap, Lebosnoyani has all the confidence in his own skill set and chin being the more durable side during this one.
Final Phil Rowe-Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani Prediction & Pick
This should be an exciting fight for as long as it lasts, but Phil Rowe would certainly benefit from this one getting strung out into the later rounds. It takes him a while before he can establish a comfortable striking rhythm, so finding his groove throughout the first and second rounds should set him up for a dominant third.
However, I don't expect Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani to wait too long in engaging his opponent. While he'll have to switch strategies to tailor more towards Rowe, he should stick to his pressure kickboxing style and look for the submission openings when they happen.
Rowe's last performance really set him back and it'll be interesting to see what kind of form he's in ahead of this fight. He's also had issues on the scales in the past and Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani will be laser-focused ahead of this debut. Let's roll with the betting favorite to gets things done during his debut.
Final Phil Rowe-Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani Prediction & Pick: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (-198)
