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The New York Mets and New York Yankees, in whatever order, are the perceived favorites to land Juan Soto, but the Toronto Blue Jays might offer him the biggest contract in free agency.
In fact, there's a “widespread belief” that the Blue Jays will offer him the most money, according to Andy Martino of SNY.
“There is also widespread skepticism that Soto would go to the Blue Jays — but a source pushed back on that, saying that if a team is involved in the final bidding, Soto is willing to play there,” Martino added. “That tracks with the above point that Team Soto has no need to inflate the perception of his market by adding teams that aren’t legitimately in it.”
That doesn't mean that the Blue Jays have the edge. Martino also said that the Yankees had the perceived “slight advantage” if all the offers were close. That doesn't guarantee anything, as only Soto knows how he is weighing each factor he considers.
“I don’t think anyone knows where Juan wants to play except for Juan and [agent Scott] Boras, and maybe Juan’s family,” one league source told Martino.
Wherever Soto ends up, there's an expectation throughout the league that this will be wrapped up rather quickly, perhaps even before the Winter Meetings begin next week.
Juan Soto could prevent the Blue Jays from retaining Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
While Soto is the clear top free agent on the market and an undeniable superstar, if he signs with Toronto, that could hamper their ability to bring back Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Guerrero, a franchise cornerstone, has only one year of team control remaining.
The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal wrote on Monday that signing Soto “almost certainly would ensure Guerrero’s departure after next season, unless the Jays are willing to carry two monster contracts.” He suggests Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernandez as cheaper alternatives.
Rosenthal also wrote last week that the Blue Jays may not make much sense for Soto either, with Guerrero and Bo Bichette about to hit free agency.
“Soto surely does not want to get stuck in a bad situation,” Rosenthal wrote. “And the Jays are not nearly as well-positioned to remain competitive as his other known suitors.”
While it's anyone's guess where Soto ends up, if it's not Toronto, it won't be because of the money. Keep in mind the Blue Jays were willing to offer Shohei Ohtani $700 million to land his services last year. Other factors would need to be at play, both on the Blue Jays' and Soto's side.
