With spring training games set to begin soon, all eyes in Atlanta Braves camp are on starting pitcher Spencer Strider. Strider finished fourth in National League Cy Young voting in 2023 before missing almost all of 2024 due to injury. He returned in 2025, but did not look like the same pitcher — Strider struggled and recorded a 4.45 ERA across 23 starts.
Staying healthy is obviously the goal. That will need to happen in order for Strider to rebound. However, what else must occur for a Strider bounce-back season to come to fruition in 2026?
“The fastball was the game-changer, right? It’s a different fastball and it wasn’t quite the same when he came back last year,” Braves manager Walt Weiss told reporters Tuesday. “But that’s not uncommon after missing time like he did. He’s in a good place. The ball is coming out really well just watching some of the bullpens. I’m encouraged by where Spencer is at.”
Spencer Strider's fastball is the ‘game-changer'
Strider will need more than only the fastball to be effective in 2026, but the fact of the matter is that he won't be able to find his 2023 form if his fastball has another down year.
In 2023, he turned in 281 strikeouts while pitching to a 3.86 ERA. His fastball run value was in the 82nd percentile in 2023. He ultimately finished the season in the 99th percentile in strikeout percentage, 98th percentile in whiff percentage and 92nd percentile in fastball velocity (97.2 MPH). He used the pitch 59 percent of the time.
2025 told a different story.
Strider finished in the 16th percentile in fastball run value, 62nd percentile in strikeout percentage, 86th percentile in whiff percentage and 69th percentile in fastball velocity (95.5 MPH). He threw the heater less as well, implementing it only 51 percent of the time.
One element of Strider's fastball that makes it effective in addition to its velocity is the rising action on the pitch. When Strider is throwing it to the best of his ability — which he did in 2023 — the pitch becomes extremely difficult to hit even when batters sit on it.
The following video from Rob Friedman shows Strider fastballs that were left down the middle in 2023. Yet, when the video was posted in August of 2023, only two hits had been recorded on heaters in the middle of the zone against Strider.
All of Spencer Strider's 98mph+ Fastballs Down the Middle in 2023 (so far).
2 hits.
Both Singles. pic.twitter.com/jopNWaeWKL— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 19, 2023
The pitch explodes, which is exactly the word Weiss used to describe Strider's fastball on Tuesday.
“That’s what makes his fastball different, it just explodes about halfway to the plate,” the new Braves manager said. “The ball is usually above the bat when his fastball is right. It looks like it’s got that hop to it in the bullpen. We’re sitting here in February so we got a long way to go.
“As we stand here today, I think he’s in a really good place.”
It is indeed only February. There is a lot of time before Strider will be in mid-season form. Atlanta is going to be cautious and patient with him during the spring. According to Weiss, however, the pitcher has looked good in bullpens up to this point.
All of his pitches will be worth monitoring in spring training. However, paying extra close attention to his fastball will be of the utmost importance. It is the pitch that will likely make or break his season.
