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The Chicago Cubs might have to choose between re-signing Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo this winter. Bryant needs to be priority No. 1.
All three of the Cubs' top stars will be free agents at the end of the 2021 season. Each could command a pretty strong dollar figure on the open market, but Bryant is almost certainly going to get the biggest bag.
The 2016 National League MVP is in the midst of a tremendous season. Bryant came into Thursday's game slashing .308/.400/.591 while ranking fifth in the majors in fWAR.
Prior to a forgettable 2020, Bryant had clearly distinguished himself as one of the best players in baseball. He ranked third in fWAR from 2015 to 2019, trailing only Mike Trout and Mookie Betts. The 29-year-old had demonstrated the ability to hit with power to all fields and is one of the better baserunners in the game.
Yet, Bryant's value could be even higher because of the positional versatility he has displayed this season.
One might suggest, given the Cubs' recent refusal to spend money, the team might not have the funds to re-sign him. Others would say the team's shortage of premium farm assets necessitates the Cubs looking to move him at the trade deadline if they are out of playoff position.
Well… I think the Cubs should probably do whatever it takes to keep Bryant on the North Side for years to come.
Intrinsic value to the Cubs
Cubs fans have seen Bryant play multiple positions in years past. But he has never been used like he has this year.
Bryant is primarily a third basemen, yet has spent nearly twice the amount of time in the outfield as he has at the hot corner. He has also spelled Rizzo at first base with the Gold Glover dealing with some back issues and needing the occasional day off.
That positional versatility has been an enormous plus for the Cubs and manager David Ross. It has allowed him to mix and match some of his other infield options, such as Nico Hoerner, David Bote and Eric Sogard. Additionally, Ross can choose to sit Jason Heyward against left-handed pitchers and use him as a pinch-hitter or late-game substitution.
The flexibility Bryant gives the Cubs is valuable in 2021, but it also has major implications going forward. Chicago's front office can sort of plug and play at certain positions in free agency and will unlikely face concerns about up-and-coming prospects in the team's system.
Baez can play three infield positions, but is best served as a shortstop. Rizzo can only play first. That's not a knock on those guys, it just speaks to what Bryant brings to the table beyond his prowess at the plate and excellent baserunning.
Why KB over Javy and Rizz?
Plenty of Cubs fans would undoubtedly prefer Chicago sign all three of their stars. Bryant himself suggested the core hopes to make the front office go through hell deciding whether to buy or sell come July.
It is not totally out of the realm of possibility the Cubs could sign all three. They've spent the past two years trying to dive below the competitive balance tax (CBT) threshold, otherwise known as the luxury tax.
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However, because all three guys could command nine-figure deals, the Cubs might have to be choosy, and Bryant needs to be the choice, even if he is the most expensive.
We have already established how valuable the positional versatility is both at present and in the future. However, Bryant has other advantages over his fellow All-Star teammates.
Baez is a superlative defender. He can make magic happen on the bases and hits for power. However, his free-swinging style is unlikely to age very well, and he's shown very little sign he can adjust through the years.
As for Rizzo, he is another premium defender and a terrific hitter, not to mention one of the most beloved Cubs in recent memory. That said, he's over two years older than Bryant, and first base might be one of the easier positions to replace. Plus, Bryant can move there long-term if necessary.
What happens next?
Of course, none of this matters if the Cubs decide to capitalize on Bryant's trade value ahead of the July deadline.
But Chicago is hanging tough in the National League Central and might still be in the heat of the division race, if not at the top, by the time July 31 rolls around. In that case, it would be impossible to truly justify dealing an MVP-caliber player in Bryant.
If the Cubs let things play out, they'll eventually have to deal with letting their three players reach the open market.
However, Chicago's determinism to get below the CBT threshold gives them leeway to spend a lot of money. The Cubs should work hard to spend that money on Bryant, first and foremost, before seeing whether they can also bring back Baez and Rizzo.
It's not often a legitimate cornerstone player–with projectable longevity–like Bryant comes along. The Cubs have the chance to keep him in the Windy City and make him their building block for years to come. They'd be wise not to let that opportunity pass them by.
