With the National League Central division crown out of reach and a comfortable lead for the top Wild Card spot, there isn't much left for the Chicago Cubs to play for in the regular season's final two weeks.
Provided their performance doesn't suffer significantly down the stretch, Chicago can mostly look to secure some individual honors, and a Cade Horton Rookie of the Year win is chief among them.
His numbers speak for themselves. He's 10-4 with a 2.70 ERA over 21 games (20 starts). On balls in play, he's produced more ground balls and fewer lines drives than league average, and while his advanced numbers point to a little bit of luck, the guy has given up a grand total of five earned runs in the last two months.
He has the support of his manager and teammates.
“Look, Cade, he deserves that recognition,” Craig Counsell said after his most recent start on September 9, per MLB.com's Jordan Bastian. “And he absolutely should be in that conversation. And he’s absolutely deserving. That’s what he’s earned. And there’s no question about it — he’s earned it.”
Center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, who knows a thing or two about being a young phenom, has also watched in awe at the rookie hurler.
“It’s been such a pleasure to play behind him,” he said, per Bastian. “He’s obviously commanding the zone and throwing everything with conviction. But looking at it from center field every day, it’s very cool seeing some of the shapes.”
Horton is the clear favorite to win the award, according to the betting markets (-160 on FanDuel), but it's far from a sure thing. Drake Baldwin (+160) from the Atlanta Braves comes in just behind him with Isaac Collins of the Milwaukee Brewers (+850) third.
Cubs pitcher Cade Horton has been the NL's best rookie
Horton's season-long stats make a compelling case for NL Rookie of the Year. But if you look at how he has responded since his worst start of the season — a seven-run, four-walk shelling at the hands of the Houston Astros on June 27 — he has been nearly unstoppable.
In 12 starts since, he has a 1.25 ERA, allowing only 12 extra-base hits in 65 innings. He has averaged less than 2.5 walks per nine innings in that time.
Horton told The Athletic that he credits the shift to simply trusting his stuff.
“I didn’t have a lot of conviction,” he said. “I just really started to trust my stuff, and attack and not be afraid of the results. The results, at the end of the day, will be what they are. It’s just staying in the process and continuing to get better, no matter what happens every week.”
While this should not be a consideration in awards voting, it's worth noting that Horton's magical rookie season comes after a more-or-less lost 2024. He pitched only 34.1 innings last year between Double-A and Triple-A as a shoulder injury kept him sidelined.
The Cubs were cautious with their 2022 first-round pick, slowly ramping him up in Spring Training. He began the season in Triple-A, where he made six stellar starts but averaged less than 5 innings per. Now, Horton has thrown a professional career-high 139 innings, showing no sign of slowing down.
Horton will have at least two more starts — maybe three — before the playoffs, depending on how the Cubs want to preserve him down the stretch. It will start with a showdown against last year's NL Rookie of the Year, Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates, on Tuesday.
