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With the Pittsburgh Pirates being very much out of playoff contention, one would think that they'd be willing sellers prior to the trade deadline. In fact, it's a reasonable thing to think that anyone other Paul Skenes could be available in a potential trade. But Skenes isn't the only member of the Pirates' starting rotation that is untouchable in trade talks, according to the rumor mill.
According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Pirates are “likely to keep right-hander Mitch Keller”, with an unnamed executive from an MLB team that's keen on acquiring the right-handed pitcher saying that they have not “bothered” to engage in trade talks with the Pirates for him, as Pittsburgh has been “reluctant” to “seriously engage” in conversations regarding the matter.
For what he brings to the table, Keller's contract is very team-friendly. He has been a consistent middle of the rotation-caliber starting pitcher for the Pirates over the past few seasons, and he's only set to make around $55.8 million over the next three seasons. Keller has averaged 2.2 WAR over the past five seasons, including a 2.6 WAR (per Fangraphs) already in 2025 — making him an appealing target for any team looking to bolster their rotation.
The Pirates currently have a 47-62 record and they have the worst offense in MLB. They've scored just 369 runs on the season in 109 games — an average of 3.39 per contest. This simply won't do, as even the best pitchers need sufficient run support to thrive.
Perhaps trading Keller away could be one of the ways the Pirates improve their offense next season, acquiring hitting prospects that are close to breaking through in the big leagues. But it seems as though Pittsburgh will want to explore all of their options before even entertaining the thought of trading Keller, a homegrown starter.
Should the Pirates trade Mitch Keller now?
The trend for Keller's peripherals over the past few seasons is worrying. His strikeout rate is only declining since he peaked in 2023, and he's relying on limiting hard contact and inducing groundballs to succeed. Missing bats is not the be-all, end-all for pitchers, but it is certainly a good indication of how successful they can be for the foreseeable future.
With Keller now approaching his 30s, and his average fastball velocity already on the decline, the Pirates may be better off trading him now while his value is still high. It might be difficult to part ways with someone the team drafted and developed into the player he is now, but it might be for the best.
