The San Diego Padres are on the precipice of vanquishing their arch rival for the second time in three years after earning a 6-5 win against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 3 of the National League Division Series. Despite pummeling LA in Chavez Ravine on Sunday, they know how important it is to wrap things up in Petco Park on Wednesday.

One big decision could make or break the team's chances. Manager Mike Shildt is trusting his gut when it comes to selecting his starting pitcher for a possible closeout Game 4.

Dylan Cease will take the mound for the Padres, per The San Diego Union-Tribune's Kevin Acee. Considering that the right-hander has never pitched on three days rest before and struggled versus the Dodgers in Game 1, this is a big gamble. But the Friars would be taking a risk either way.

Padres' starting staff became thin abruptly

San Diego Padres pitcher Joe Musgrove (44) leaves the game during the fourth inning of game two in the Wildcard round for the 2024 MLB Playoffs against the Atlanta Braves at Petco Park.
Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Shildt's rotation plans were thrown into disarray after veteran hurler Joe Musgrove suffered a UCL injury in the NL Wild Card Series versus the Atlanta Braves. With the 2022 All-Star done for the rest of the year and likely all of 2025, the Padres have limited options. They can ask their elite bullpen to carry the entire game for them, or trust that their flamethrower will step up.

After all, the franchise traded for Cease for the primary reason of bolstering the front end of its starting rotation. San Diego's faith was rewarded throughout 2024, as the 28-year-old posted a 3.47 ERA in a career-high 189 1/3 innings of work while finishing third in the MLB with 224 strikeouts. Now, Cease has to prove he can deliver in October.

The 2022 American League Cy Young runner-up has failed to find a groove in his first two career postseason starts (first one was with Chicago White Sox in 2021). Furthermore, he has never made it past the fourth inning. He allowed five runs on six hits and walked two batters in the Padres' 7-5 Game 1 loss to Los Angeles. A similar performance in Game 4 could give the Dodgers a stay of execution, or even result in them ultimately advancing to the NL Championship Series. No pressure, though.

LA skipper Dave Roberts will be going with a bullpen day, which means San Diego should have the edge if Dylan Cease pitches to his capabilities. But that is asking a lot given the circumstances. This California conflict has already produced an abundance of drama, and there is likely more to come when they collide again on Wednesday night.