Things are not as rosy as they were last month, as the Mariners are struggling, causing their lead in the AL Wild Card race to slip. Overall, the alarm bells are sounding off. It has also caused a slight dip in the Mariners' World Series hopes, as they have seen much of their momentum zapped away. A Mariners playoff collapse could happen if they cannot overcome their struggles. Instead, the Mariners' fatal flaw could also prevent them from making the playoffs at all.
Seattle still has -350 odds to make the playoffs, according to FanDuel. Yet, the M's still have the Texas Rangers and Kansas City Royals on their heels. The Mariners are 2-6 in their past eight games and have seen a lot of misfortune during this slump. Unfortunately, it has also caused a significant dent in their chances of making a run to the World Series.
The offense has been the issue for years. Surprisingly, that is not the Mariners' fatal flaw. While the offense is 21st in batting average, there is enough power and ability to get on base to make up for it. The Mariners' fatal flaw is something that was once a strength: their starting rotation.
The slight decline in the Mariners' rotation
The rotation is not terrible. No, it's average, ranking 16th in team ERA. When the M's had an elite rotation, many believed they just needed an average offense to become a contender. Now, the offense is slightly above average, while the pitching staff has regressed to average status. There have been some exceptions.
Bryan Woo has been exceptional, going 12-7 with a 3.02 ERA in 27 starts. In those 27 outings, he has had 19 quality starts. Meanwhile, Luis Castillo has been inconsistent, going 8-8 with a 3.94 ERA in 28 starts. In those 28 games, 14 were quality starts. Castillo has had good games, but he has not done it enough to warrant recognition.
Logan Gilbert and George Kirby have dealt with injuries this season, and it could be affecting their performances. Notably, Gilbert is 4-6 with a 3.72 ERA in 20 starts. Gilbert has only produced six quality starts in those 20 outings, which is a career low. Likewise, Kirby is 6-5 with a 3.94 ERA in 18 starts. Over those 18 times on the mound, he has delivered 10 quality starts.
How the Mariners' rotation has affected the bullpen
The rotation's surprise struggles have taken a toll on the bullpen. When starters don't go long, it strains the bullpen. When relievers are strained, they lose their effectiveness. Therefore, it's no surprise that the bullpen is 12th in team ERA and starting to slip under the pressure.
The M's bullpen has 24 blown saves this season. Overall, they have either shut the door down or collapsed entirely. It has been the story in Seattle, and a tale as old as time. There have been times when the Seattle bullpen has had to work a lot more than usual, and it has resulted in more chances of making a mistake.
The rotation's inability to consistently pass five innings has caused a ripple effect. As a result, the bullpen has struggled. The Mariners' fatal flaw has caused an entire chain of issues in the whole pitching staff. While the Mariners added an arm to their bullpen to help, they might need more from their starters.
Why the rotation will cause a Mariners' playoff collapse
Assuming the M's make the playoffs, the road for them won't be easy. If the playoffs were to begin today, they would face the Houston Astros in a three-game series in the AL Wild Card Round.
There is still a chance the M's can win the AL West, as they sit just three games behind the Astros. However, they have not taken advantage of the opportunities given, and their pitchers have struggled to perform. Even if the Mariners were to hold off the Rangers, they would draw the worst possible opponent in the AL Wild Card Round.
The Mariners are 5-5 against the Astros, 1-5 against the Yankees, and 3-3 against the Red Sox this season. Additionally, they are 1-3 against the Astros in Houston, and 0-3 against the Yanks in the Bronx. If the M's were to start the playoffs against either of those teams, would anyone believe they have a chance based on past performances? Assuming they make it, a Mariners' playoff collapse is almost certain unless the rotation can figure it out.
Gilbert, Castillo, and Kirby were once elite pitchers, but have fallen off. If all three cannot find their true form, then it could be a quick exit for the Mariners in the 2025 season. The rotation was once the Mariners' greatest strength. Now, it's the Mariners' fatal flaw that could end them.
