It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Nationals-Padres prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Nationals Padres.

The Padres have been hovering close to .500 for most of this season. They are — in terms of results — an average team. They hoped they would be better than average, but that hasn't really emerged yet. They did show what they are capable of their recent four-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers, one of the better teams in the National League. The Padres won three out of four and had one of the better offensive series of their season. They scored at least six runs in three of the four games. Their upside remains tantalizing, but they need to show it on the field for an extended period of time.

The Washington Nationals are right there with the Padres, floating near .500 in the middle of a nine-team jumble in the National League wild card race. Nine teams all have a realistic chance at a wild card berth. Those teams are vying for two playoff spots behind the top four teams in the Senior Circuit (the Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers, and Braves). The Padres have played one half of their season. They have a chance in the second half to establish themselves as a playoff team and become the team no one wants to face in October. This series gives them a chance to separate from the Nationals and potentially move into a much stronger playoff position by the All-Star break. It's a very important series.

Nationals-Padres Projected Starters 

Patrick Corbin vs. Matt Waldon

Patrick Corbin (1-7) has a 5.60 ERA. He has been one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball for the past few seasons. Bettors often discuss “Patrick Corbin Day,” as a way of referencing that they're going to get rich by betting against him in some form or fashion. The 1-7 win-loss record (eight decisions) points to Corbin's inability to win against the money line, and he has certainly had some bad starts this season. A pitcher doesn't enter late June with a 5.60 ERA if he hasn't served up some clunkers. However, that's part of the nuance with Corbin: As mediocre as he is, he's not a consistently awful pitcher. He has good starts. If you look at his last five outings, three of them have been relatively strong.

Last Start: Wednesday, June 19 versus the Arizona Diamondbacks: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 3 BB, 7 K

2024 Road Splits: 8 starts, 42 1/3 IP, 58 H, 29 R, 4 HR, 15 BB, 26 K

Matt Waldron (5-6) has a 3.46 ERA. Waldron is a knuckleballer who is trying to integrate his fastball into a pitching mix with his knuckler to get hitters off balance. As he has progressed in his 2024 season, he has gotten steadily better in figuing out how and when to change speeds and disrupt the timing of opposing batters. Waldron might have delivered his best performance of the 2024 season last week against the Phillies. You can see the stat line below. Waldron cooled off one of the toughest hitting lineups in the league, and he did so in Philadelphia, where the Phils have barely lost at all this season. Waldron enters this game in great form.

Last Start: Wednesday, June 19 versus the Philadelphia Phillies: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 BB, 6 K

2024 Home Splits: 6 starts, 33 IP, 33 H, 16 R, 4 HR, 6 BB, 31 K

Here are the Nationals-Padres MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Nationals-Padres Odds

Washington Nationals: +1.5 (-120)

Moneyline: +180

San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+100)

Moneyline: -215

Over: 8 (-110)

Under: 8 (-110)

How to Watch Nationals vs. Padres

Time: 9:40 p.m. ET/6:40 p.m. PT

TV: MASN (Nationals) / MLB (Padres) / MLB Extra Innings

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why The Nationals Could Cover The Spread

The Nats scored a ninth-inning comeback win on Sunday versus the Rockies and will be confident heading into this game. This is a young team with nothing to lose. The Nats moneyline is a fat plus-money ticket waiting to be cashed.

Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread

The Padres have begun to play better at home. Matt Waldron is pitching really well. Patrick Corbin is mediocre. It doesn't have to be more complicated than that.

Final Nationals-Padres Prediction & Pick

The pitching matchup is a mismatch. Take San Diego and don't overthink this one.

Final Nationals-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres -1.5