A hot Milwaukee Bucks team travels to L.A. Monday to take on the Los Angeles Clippers in a battle of two of the best teams in the league. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Bucks-Clippers prediction and pick.
The Bucks are 29-16 straight up and 20-25 against the spread. Milwaukee is coming off a loss to the New York Knicks in which they only had eight players available.
The Clippers stand at 31-16 and are 27-20 against the spread. Los Angeles has won five straight, with their most recent win coming over the Philadelphia 76ers.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Bucks-Clippers odds.
NBA Odds: Bucks-Clippers Odds
Milwaukee Bucks +2.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Clippers -2.5 (-105)
Over 232 Points (-110)
Under 232 Points (-110)
Why The Clippers Could Cover The Spread
Since the All-Star break, the Clippers have looked nearly unbeatable.
Los Angeles is 7-2 in the span, and six out of seven of the wins have come by double-digit margins. The Clips have held down the fort in Staples Center, going undefeated at home in the stretch and holding the second-best home record in the Western Conference at 16-6.
The Clippers’ recent success comes from consistent, tenacious defensive effort. Teams have been unable to crack the L.A. defense, and Kawhi Leonard and company have held their opponents below their scoring average in seven straight games.
Los Angeles ranks in the top ten in the league in the least points allowed, least opponent free-throw attempts, and lowest opponent three-point percentage. They’re also excellent at cleaning the glass, allowing the least offensive rebounds per game.
Against a Bucks team that thrives at the three-point line and the offensive boards, the Los Angeles defense matches up well with their opponent tonight.
On the offensive end, the Clippers have a shot at doing what the Bucks love to do to opponents: shoot them out of the building.
The Clips lead the league in three-point percentage, hitting 41.6% of their threes. Milwaukee has struggled to defend the three-point line, allowing opponents to connect on 37% from downtown, the ninth highest percentage in the league.
Los Angeles has ten players that shoot above 38% from three. With this much depth, the Bucks will struggle to keep up efficiency-wise if just a handful of Clippers role players make their open looks tonight.
Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
The Clippers are hot, but the Bucks aren’t doing so bad themselves. Milwaukee has currently lost two straight but had won eight straight prior to that.
They lost their last game to the Knicks, but the loss came with four starters out, including reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo.
With Giannis, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday all active tonight, the Bucks are one of the few teams that have the depth to stand up to the Clippers on their home floor.
The last time these two matched up, the Bucks pulled out a close victory and held the Clippers to 100 points. While it’s unlikely this happens again, Milwaukee’s offense is capable of carrying the load in this matchup.
The Bucks average the highest point total in the league, scoring 119.3 points per game. They hold the fifth-highest field goal percentage and the fourth-highest three-point percentage in the league.
Milwaukee badly needs their three-point shooters to step up on Monday against a solid Clippers perimeter defense. Milwaukee gets 37% of their points from beyond the arc, seventh-most in the NBA. Considering their defense has been shaky of late, the Bucks will depend on three-point shooting to keep them in this.
The good news is that Milwaukee’s shooters are on fire. In the last three Bucks games where they had all their starters active, Milwaukee has shot 60/123 from behind the arc, an eye-popping 48.7%.
If the Bucks can connect on even 40% of their long-range shots tonight, they have a great shot of covering at the very least.
Final Bucks-Clippers Prediction & Pick
The Clippers have struggled all year with high-scoring teams. Against squads that average more than 115 points per game, the Clips are 3-6 overall. This game is likely to come down to the wire, and I like the Bucks to have a good shot to win this one late thanks to their explosive offense. I’ll take the points with Milwaukee tonight and bank on their defense to do enough to keep the Clippers from going off, while their offense continues to click.
FINAL PICK: MILWAUKEE BUCKS +2.5
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