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The Miami Heat (13-15) visit the Oklahoma City Thunder (11-16) on Wednesday night. Action tips off at 8:10 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Heat-Thunder prediction.
Miami has won two of their last three games but still sits in 10th place in the Eastern Conference. The Heat are 9-18-1 against the spread while 54% of their games have gone over. Oklahoma City has lost three straight, dropping them to 13th in the Western Conference. The Thunder are 16-11 against the spread while 63% of their games have gone over. This will be the first of two meetings between the teams this season. Last year Miami took both games by double digits.
Here are the Heat-Thunder NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Heat-Thunder Odds
Miami Heat: -2.5 (-110)
Oklahoma City Thunder: +2.5 (-110)
Over: 223 (-108)
Under: 223 (-112)
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Miami is right in the mix to contend for a playoff spot but that is no thanks to their offense. The Heat are last in scoring and 27th in offensive rating. Their record is propped up by a spectacular defense that ranks fifth in points allowed and eighth in defensive rating. The Heat don't do themselves any favors on the glass, ranking 24th in rebound differential and 24th in rebound rate. Miami will notably be without Jimmy Butler tonight.
Without Butler, the Heat will need need to find other ways to score. As one of the worst offensive teams in the league, that is easier said than done. They aren't without capable scorers, however, as Miami rosters six players averaging double-digit points. Center Bam Adebayo is an obvious candidate to step up as he averages 20.8 PPG on 53% shooting. The do-it-all center also leads the team in rebounding with 9.5 RPG and is a solid passer for a big man, averaging 3.3 APG. Bam has been inconsistent on offense this season but has flashed the ability to carry Miami to victory. The Heat are 5-0 when Bam scores at least 28 points this season – creating an obvious avenue for a potential Miami cover.
Outside of Bam, the Heat will need one, if not both, of their combo guards to have strong shooting nights if they want to cover. The Thunder are a poor defensive team but will force Miami to score points with their strong offense. If this game turns into a shootout, either Tyler Herro or Max Strus will need to catch fire from deep if they want to keep up. For the season Herro averages 19.5 PPG while shooting 38% from deep, while Strus averages 13.7 PPG on 34% from three. Both players take over seven three-pointers per game but have been inconsistent. The Thunder are in the bottom half of the NBA in threes allowed – paving the way for potential big nights from Miami's pair of guards.
Why The Thunder Could Cover The Spread
Oklahoma City has vastly outperformed preseason expectations despite their position on the ladder. The Thunder have been among the best teams against the spread thanks primarily to their potent offense. OKC ranks seventh in scoring and 21st in offensive rating. They've been held back by their poor defense, however, as they rank 29th in points allowed and 17th in defensive rating. Their biggest flaw comes on the glass as they rank last in rebound differential and 28th in rebound rate.
Point guard Shai Gilegous-Alexander has carried Oklahoma City all season long but he will need another strong showing if the Thunder want to cover as home underdogs. For the season, SGA has averaged 31.2 PPG (third in the NBA) while shooting 51% from the field. Additionally, he leads the team with 5.8 APG and has chipped in 2.8 STOCKS (steals+blocks) per game. SGA has cemented himself as a premier player in the league and is single-handily tanking their chances at a top lottery pick next summer. That's good news for betters, however, as he's the primary reason the Thunder have been so good against the spread.
Notably, SGA is coming off an epic duel with MVP candidate Luka Doncic. SGA dropped 42 points while shooting 61% from the field. While he can't be expected to drop 40 again tonight, his strong play of late is something to consider before making a Heat-Thunder prediction.
Oklahoma City backers have to be pleased with this matchup as Miami is almost as bad as the Thunder on the glass. That being said, the Thunder will still need someone to rebound the ball as Miami center Bam Adebayo is a brutal matchup for a weak OKC frontline. Look for versatile wings Josh Giddey (7.8 RPG) and Aleksej Pokusevski (5.4 RPG) to attack the glass in a winnable home matchup for OKC.
Final Heat-Thunder Prediction & Pick
With Butler out, I like the undervalued Thunder to cover as home underdogs.
Final Heat-Thunder Prediction & Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 (-110)
