The Sacramento Kings travel to Texas to take on the Dallas Mavericks for the first time this season on Sunday night. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Kings-Mavericks prediction and pick.
The Kings hold an overall record of 22-34, and they are 24-32 against the spread. Sacramento is coming off a loss to the Phoenix Suns.
The Mavericks stand at 30-25 overall but are only 26-29 against the spread. Dallas is coming off a loss to the New York Knicks.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Kings-Mavericks odds.
NBA Odds: Kings-Mavericks Odds
Dallas Mavericks +8.5 (-110)
Sacramento Kings -8.5 (-110)
Over 231 Points (-110)
Under 231 Points (-110)
Why The Kings Could Cover The Spread
The Mavericks are in the midst of one of their worst stretches of the season. Dallas has failed to cover in four straight matchups, and if not for a miracle Luka Doncic three, they would be 0-4 overall as well.
The Mavericks are actually worse against the spread at home than they are on the road, holding a 10-16 ATS record in the American Airlines Center. Conversely, the Kings have been better spread-wise on the road, breaking even at 14-14 as opposed to their home spread record of 10-18.
When Sacramento wins, they win by overpowering opponents on the offensive end. In all three of the Kings’ last wins, they shot 50% from the floor. Sacramento averages the ninth-highest point total in the NBA, scoring 114 points per game. De’Aaron Fox has led the charge lately, averaging 31.2 points, 7.0 assists, and 5.0 rebounds in his last five games while shooting 49% from the floor.
The Mavericks defense has improved since the start of the season, but they’ve shown signs of weakness in their last appearances. Their last four opponents have either reached or surpassed their point average. A promising sign for Kings bettors is the fact that backcourts have hurt Dallas recently. Dejounte Murray, Grayson Allen, and R.J. Barrett have all torn up the Mavs defense in their last matchups.
If Fox and Buddy Hield have big shooting nights tonight, the Mavs could be on upset watch yet again.
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
While Dallas has had their spread struggles of late, the Kings haven’t been much better. Sacramento had only covered once in their last six games, and they hold an overall record of 1-3 ATS as 8.5 point or higher underdogs.
The Kings live and die by their offense, as their defense hasn’t slowed anyone. Sacramento allows the most points in the league at 118.1 points per game. Basically, if the Kings don’t come out hot, they’re very likely to be shot off the floor immediately. If the Mavs can even play a little bit of defense tonight, they should be able to open up a big lead quickly.
The biggest focus for the Mavs tonight will be the defensive end. Doncic and company should have no problem running up the score, but slowing the Kings will be more difficult. Thankfully, the Mavericks have greatly improved their defense. Dallas holds opponents to the seventh-lowest field goal percentage in the league and the ninth least points.
As long as the Mavs can prevent the Kings backcourt from catching fire, Dallas can pull away at some point in this game.
Final Kings-Mavericks Prediction & Pick
The Kings just ran up the numbers on the Phoenix a few nights ago, a superior defense to the Mavericks. I doubt Sacramento pulls the upset tonight, but they should make enough shots to at least stay within striking distance. I like the Kings to make this close as Dallas struggles to stop their scorers.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: DAL 122, SAC 117 (SAC +8.5)