The New York Knicks will face the Miami Heat on Friday night. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Knicks-Heat prediction and pick.
The Knicks have been one of the many disappointing teams in the NBA this season. New York made the playoffs last season but sit at just 31-42 this season. Their postseason chances are nearly nonexistent, making this another lost season for the Knicks.
The Heat, on the other hand, have exceeded every expectation set for them. Miami is 47-26, which is the best record in the Eastern Conference. However, the Heat only have a one-game lead on the Milwaukee Bucks for the top seed and just suffered two terrible losses in a row to Philadelphia 76ers and Golden State Warriors teams missing stars. Every game is crucial for Miami, including this game against the lowly Knicks, and especially after the epic blowup between Jimmy Butler, Erik Spoelstra, and Udonis Haslem last game.
Here are the Knicks-Heat NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Knicks-Heat Odds
New York Knicks: +7.5 (-110)
Miami Heat: -7.5 (-110)
Over: 215.5 (-110)
Under: 215.5 (-110)
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Why The Knicks Could Cover The Spread
As always, the Knicks will rely on their defense to get them a cover here. New York has been solid on that end of the floor, allowing only 106 points per game while holding their opponents to 44% shooting. Both of those numbers are among the best in the league. The Knicks have also been fantastic at limiting possessions for opposing teams, as they hold their opponents to an average of 86 shots per game. The Heat shoot very few shots in general, which could make this a fairly tough matchup for them.
A huge chunk of the Miami depth chart is listed as questionable for this game. Starters Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, and PJ Tucker are all questionable, along with backups Tyler Herro and Caleb Martin. While it's unlikely that all of these players sit, it's also unlikely that all of them play. It's hard to trust the Heat with a near-eight-point spread when several starters could be sidelined along with their best bench player. Even if just Butler and Herro sit, the Knicks have a great chance of covering a semi-large spread.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Miami's defense will also perform well here. The Heat have been one of the better defensive teams in the league all season, and now they face an abysmal New York offense. The Knicks only score 106 points per game while ranking in the bottom five in the league in shooting percentage, shooting efficiency, and effective field goal percentage. Miami already holds its opponents to 105 points per game and a 44% shooting percentage, two elite numbers. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the Knicks held under triple digits in this game.
New York is dealing with a couple of injuries of their own here. Forward Julius Randle and center Mitchell Robinson are both questionable for this game, making the Knicks an extremely risky pick. Randle leads the team in points per game, assists per game, and rebounds per game, while Robinson is a defensive anchor in the paint. Both play incredibly important roles that are difficult to replace. If neither plays, the Heat are essentially a lock to cover.
Final Knicks-Heat Prediction & Pick
With all of the questionable players on both sides, picking a team isn't an appealing prospect. Instead, the under is the best bet on the board. Assuming some key players do sit out, both of these teams should lean on their defense to keep things close, and these are two of the best defenses in the league. Take the under.
Final Knicks-Heat Pick: Under: 215.5 (-110)
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