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The Denver Nuggets (24-12) visit the Minnesota Timberwolves (16-21) on Monday night. Action tips off at 8 p.m. ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Nuggets-Timberwolves prediction and pick, plus give a look at how to watch.
Denver has won seven of its last eight games to push them into first place in the Western Conference. The Nuggets have covered 50% of their games while 50% of their games have gone over. Minnesota has lost six consecutive games to drop them into 11th in the West. The Timberwolves have covered 38% of their games while 54% of their games have gone under. This will be the first of four meetings between the conference foes. Last season, Minnesota won three of four games against Denver, with two of those coming by double digits.
Here are the Nuggets-Timberwolves NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Nuggets-Timberwolves Odds
Denver Nuggets: -2 (-110)
Minnesota Timberwolves: +2 (-110)
Over: 233 (-110)
Under: 233 (-110)
Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread
Despite their struggles against Minnesota last season, the Nuggets are in an excellent position to cover. The Nuggets have been one of the best offensive teams in the league this season, ranking in the top five in scoring, field goal percentage, and 3-point percentage. With the Timberwolves allowing the ninth-most points per game, Denver is well-positioned to have yet another explosive offensive output.
Denver's potent offensive is led by two-time MVP Nikola Jokic. Jokic does it all for the Nuggets. He leads the team in scoring (25.7 PPG), rebounding (10.9 RPG), passing (9.5 APG), and steals (1.4 SPG). He's also incredibly efficient as he shoots 62% from the field while holding a stellar 2.8 assist-to-turnover ratio. Jokic was incredible in the month of December, averaging 29-12-10 while shooting 60%. He compiled five triple-doubles, four 40-point games, and even a 27-rebound game.
The Joker kicked the New Year off right Sunday as well, dropping a 30-point triple-double in their win over the first-place Boston Celtics. He has had his way with opposing center Rudy Gobert over the last two years, averaging 31 PPG, 11.2 RPG, and 9.4 APG while shooting 67% in his last five games against the former Defensive Player of the Year. Despite his personal success, Jokic's Nuggets were just 1-4 against Gobert during that time.
Despite the Nuggets' struggles against Gobert over the last two years, guard Jamal Murray has seen plenty of success against the rim protector. While he has been limited to just two games against Gobert, he has averaged 23 points and three 3-pointers made against him. That bodes well for Denver's success Monday, especially considering his recent play. He has averaged 22.5 points and 7.5 assists over his last four games. After sitting out Sunday to manage his knee, Murray is expected to play Monday and will presumably give Denver a huge boost given his fresh legs.
Why The Timberwolves Could Cover The Spread
Despite Minnesota's six-game skid, they have a great opportunity to bounce back as home underdogs against the West's top team. The Timberwolves took three games from the Nuggets last season. While they'll again be without star Karl-Anthony Towns, their aggressive defense could pay dividends against a Nuggets team that turns the ball over at the seventh-highest rate in the league. Minnesota forces a turnover on 14.9% of possessions — a top-10 rate in the league. That starts with star Anthony Edwards, who leads the team with 1.8 steals per game. He has picked up nine steals and four blocks in their last four games as he continues to develop into a force on the defensive end.
Edwards is the guy to watch on offense as well. The 21-year-old averages 23.9 points for the season while shooting a solid 46.4% from the floor. After a cold start to the season, he caught fire in the month of December. In 15 December games, Edwards averaged 25.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 5.2 assists. He tacked on three STOCKS (steals plus blocks) as well — proving to be an all-around force. The biggest offensive improvement over the last month was his outside shooting as he nailed 2.6 triples per game at nearly a 41% clip. Despite Denver's strong record, they are certainly vulnerable on the defensive end where they allow the 14th-most points per game.
Against a bel0w-average Nuggets defense, stretch-5 Naz Reid could prove to be a critical X-factor in their chances of covering tonight. Reid averaged 13.7 points and shot 40% from 3-point range during the month of December. His ability to stretch the floor paid dividends for the production of Edwards, especially with KAT missing time.
Final Nuggets-Timberwolves Prediction & Pick
In a matchup of two teams headed in opposite directions, I like the Nuggets to keep rolling as road favorites.
Final Nuggets-Timberwolves Prediction & Pick: Denver Nuggets -2 (-110)
How To Watch Nuggets-Timberwolves
TV: Altitude, Bally North
Stream: NBA League Pass
Time: 8 p.m. ET