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The San Antonio Spurs (14-45) visit the Dallas Mavericks (31-29) on Thursday night! Action tips off at 8:40 p.m. ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Spurs-Mavericks prediction, pick, and how to watch.
San Antonio lost 14 straight games heading into the All-Star Break and sits in 14th place in the West. The Spurs covered 41% of their games while 58% went over the projected point total. Dallas lost three straight prior to the break but still sits in sixth place in the West. The Mavericks covered 37% of their games while 55% went over. This will be the second of four meetings between the conference foes. Dallas won the previous matchup 126-125 at the end of December.
Here are the Spurs-Mavericks NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Spurs-Mavericks Odds
San Antonio Spurs: +14 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks: -14 (-110)
Over: 239.5 (-112)
Under: 239.5 (-108)
How To Watch Spurs vs. Mavericks
TV: KENS, Bally Southwest
Stream: NBA League Pass
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET/ 5:30 p.m. PT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Spurs Could Cover The Spread
San Antonio cemented itself as a tanking team in the first half of the season as they went into the break on a horrendous 14-game skid. The Spurs are far and away the worst defensive team in the league but have a chance to cover as huge underdogs thanks to a frisky offense. While the Spurs rank just 24th in scoring with 112.4 PPG, they dominate the paint and do a great job making extra passes. San Antonio averages the second-most paint PPG with 56.1. Additionally, they rank in the top five in assists with 26.9 APG. Perhaps the biggest thing that could impact their chances of covering tonight is their offensive rebounding. San Antonio holds the seventh-highest offensive rebound rate in the league – something that could come into play tonight against a suspect Dallas frontline.
The Spurs are led by forward Keldon Johnson. Johnson was outstanding for the Spurs as he quietly averaged 21.8 PPG in the first half of the season. Additionally, the 23-year-old contributes on the glass with 4.7 RPG. While he isn't an especially efficient outside shooter, he does average 2.2 made threes per game. Johnson found a ton of success against Dallas back in December when he scored 30 points on 53% shooting. Dallas' defense has a ton of holes – setting Johnson up for another strong showing.
With a number of injuries for San Antonio, rookie Malaki Branham saw his usage skyrocket as the team headed into the All-Star Break. The 20th overall pick averaged 19.5 PPG and 4.5 RPG in their last four games prior to the break. He averaged 2.8 threes per game over that span while shooting an efficient 44% from three. The rookie clearly has a lot of talent and will get another chance to show he belongs tonight with increased usage on the horizon.
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
Dallas left a sour taste in the mouths of their fans headed into the All-Star Break as they lost their last three games. That being said, the addition of Kyrie Irving clearly raises their ceiling and the hope is that some time off will give Dallas the reset they needed to make a strong playoff push. Dallas plays at a snail's pace and thus has weak offensive numbers. Despite that, the Mavericks are an offensive-minded team who is absolutely lethal from beyond the arc. Dallas shoots the 10th-highest percentage from deep while averaging the third-most threes per game. Additionally, the Mavericks do an excellent job drawing fouls and getting to the line. Their 26 free-throw attempts per game rank second in the league.
Dallas is led by one of the most intriguing duos in the league, Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic. Kyrie has looked tremendous since joining the Mavericks. In four games with Dallas, Irving averaged 28.3 PPG and 7.0 APG. The skilled playmaker has been lights-out since the trade, shooting 53% overall and 43% from deep. With an average of 3.8 threes per game, Irving has been locked in to make a deep push into the playoffs.
With all the excitement surrounding the Kyrie trade, Luka Doncic's incredible season has somewhat flown under the radar. After some early MVP buzz, Luka has largely gone about his work quietly. That isn't to say he isn't still putting in numbers, as Luka has put together one of the best regular seasons in his career. The 23-year-old leads the league in scoring with 33.3 PPG in addition to 8.8 RPG and 8.1 APG.
Final Spurs-Mavericks Prediction & Pick
Dallas ended the first half on a sour note but I expect them to start rolling after a much-needed break. Ride the home favorites against the worst defense in the NBA.
Final Spurs-Mavericks Prediction & Pick: Dallas Mavericks -14 (-110)
