It's the final Saturday of March people! With Easter quickly approaching and the NBA regular season coming to a close, the Oklahoma City Thunder travel to the Mile High City to battle it out with their division rivals in the Denver Nuggets. Let's take a sneak peek at our NBA odds series, which will include our Thunder-Nuggets prediction and pick.
The struggling Thunder are not playing their best basketball heading into Saturday night's action, as the Thunder are 4-18 in their past 22 and just recently snapped a ten-game losing streak after defeating the Orlando Magic 118-102. Oklahoma City possesses the second-worst season record in the Western Conference at 21-52, and is 11-25 when out on the road.
Missing a pair of their best players for most of the season in Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr, the Nuggets have played to the best of their capabilities and have put themselves in a great position to make a run at a top-four seed. Denver has been average on their home floor at Ball Arena with a 21-15 record and even lost last time they were hosting OKC by a score of 119-107. Denver sits in sixth place in the Western Conference and is only 1/2 game in front of Minnesota, who occupies a play-in slot as the seventh-place team.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Thunder-Nuggets odds:
NBA odds: Thunder-Nuggets Odds
Oklahoma City Thunder: +15 (-110)
Denver Nuggets: +15 (-110)
Over: 230 (-112)
Under: 230 (-110)
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Why the Thunder Could Cover the Spread
Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Previously, the Thunder's latest trip to Denver was a stunner all the way around. Not only did OKC defeat the Nuggets on their own floor, but they stomped and befuddled Denver all night long. Before the dust had settled, Oklahoma City had shot 50% from three and got out in transition, spoiling what should've been a simple victory for the home team. Believe it or not, the Thunder can cover the spread and even win outright if some of the bounces go their way yet again.
However, OKC has displayed poor play for quite some time, ranking near the bottom of the NBA in points per game and assists per game. In order for the Thunder to shock the world, they will need to hone in on their rebounding differential and rely on the stellar play of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 24.5 PPG on 45% shooting from the field. Surprisingly, the Thunder rank sixth in rebounds per game with 45.8. Defeating the Nuggets for a second time on the road would be a season highlight for a young and inexperienced Thunder squad, and if they play like they did the last time these two went to battle even slightly, then OKC should have no problem in covering. Keep in mind, the Thunder are 44-25-4 ATS this season.
Why the Nuggets Could Cover the Spread
You better believe the March 2nd loss is still fresh in the minds of the Nuggets, as the home defeat was arguably the worst showing of the year to that point. The Nuggets cannot afford to come into Saturday night's rematch with the same intensity from last time, as the Thunder took advantage of Denver's lackadaisical effort on both sides of the floor. This ended up being Denver's downfall, so expect the Nuggets to come out hot at Ball Arena. On paper, these two division rivals are not in the same realm of talent, as Denver should exploit the OKC's weaknesses. The Nuggets are coming off a high-scoring shootout loss at the hands of the Phoenix Suns 140-130, and they would love nothing more to get back on track versus the Thunder.
Center Nikola Jokic only had 22 points against Oklahoma City in their last meeting, an unusually low-scoring effort from the defending MVP. Jokic will come out aggressive, and should not have a problem with the Thunder's bigs down low, on the perimeter, or anywhere on the court for that matter. Denver's 27.5 assists are good for third in the NBA, as they should have no issue in dicing up and dissecting the Thunder defense, The Nuggets can beat anybody when they're playing at their best and clicking on all cylinders, and a well-rounded bounce back performance should be the expectation when looking at this matchup.
Final Thunder-Nuggets Prediction & Pick
That is an awfully big spread for an NBA game, but someone is gonna have to cover and the other unfortunately won't! The spread for this game in Denver was around the same mark when these two squads battled last, and the belief is that the Nuggets won't make those same mistakes that cost them that game again. Denver wins this one big in front of the home fans and smashes the -15 point spread in the process.
Final Thunder-Nuggets Prediction & Pick: Nuggets -15 (-110)
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